This thing got a lot of attention from US rightist blogs. I was rather puzzled why would do something like that, no credible explanations were advanced. Now, via Mark Kleiman, I learn it was apparently all wrong. Should have guessed.
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Tag Archives: Governments and parties
Russia: ‘Managed democracy’ shows its true colors
Well, well. The richest man in Russia got arrested yesterday. Rather unusually brutally too, FSB raid, as demonstartions. What’s going on?
Let’s turn to not mainstream media but rather The Moscow Times who of course are all over this.
First, some kremlinology:
Analysts have said the attack is an attempt to curb Khodorkovsky’s political ambitions. Not only has the nation’s richest man has been openly funding opposition parties ahead of elections, but he also has attempted to push his own policy agenda on key state issues such as pipeline strategy.
The onslaught also comes amid a vicious battle for position between the old elite that came to power and wealth under former President Boris Yeltsin — including Khodorkovsky — and a hard-line faction known as the siloviki that arrived in the Kremlin with President Vladimir Putin.
Analysts said Tuesday that the new burst of activity from prosecutors came amid signs that the Kremlin faction backing the old elite, known as the Family, might be beginning to cave in. The head of the presidential administration, Alexander Voloshin, has been seen as the main protector of that group.
“Rumors of Voloshin’s upcoming resignation are continuing to come from the Kremlin and, judging by their frequency and their consistency, it seems he will not survive the elections. He is gradually losing real control over the Kremlin apparatus,” said Andrei Ryabov, political analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center. “What’s happening now is a sign of the shift in the balance of power.”
Ryabov added: “Another reason for the recent burst also appears to be Yukos’ increasing activity in trying to sell a stake to a foreign oil major. If such a deal happened, this would not suit the siloviki as YukosSibneft would then fall completely out of their control.”[*]
What will happen?
Kremlin-connected political analyst Sergei Markov said Khodorkovsky’s arrest could usher in new rules of the game for big business and the state.
“After Khodorkovsky’s loss there could be a change in the rules of the game,” he said. “Khodorkovsky will be made an offer he can’t refuse. He can accept the new rules of the game, or he can stay in prison.
“Those who do not agree with the new rules of the game will lose control over their property. That was what happened with [Vladimir] Gusinsky and [Boris] Berezovsky.”
Markov speculated that Khodorkovsky could be forced to give up his stake in Yukos and step down in favor of other managers more ready to cooperate with the state. He could not say exactly what the new rules for business might involve, apart from plans to raise taxes on extraction of raw materials.[*]
Another Day in Fran?allemagne.
In order to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Franco-German friendship treaty, on January 22nd the French newspaper Liberation and the German Berliner Zeitung linguistically unified the two countries and created La Fran?allemagne. This Friday, the European Council will witness another day in this beautful country.
Both Chancellor Sch?der and Foriegn Minister Joschka Fischer have to leave the two day Brussels meeting late on Thursday because the German Bundestag is voting on a crucial reform bill this Friday. Their presence in Berlin is indeed important, and most likely not only symbolic: Someone from the SPD’s loony left might need some hand holding in order to avoid a last minute hold up of the coalition’s slim majority, and, of course, the two men need to vote themselves.
As civil servants aren’t allowed to represent their countries in the European Council, Chancellor Schr?der, according to Spiegel Online (in German) and various other news sources, asked French President Jaques Chirac last Sunday to help him out and also take care of German interests in this Friday’s (supposedly not too important) Council meeting. Chirac agreed. German civil servants will only be present just in case urgent need for consultation with the Chancellor should arise.
A French President speaking for Germany… talk about powerful Euro-symbolism.
Berlusconi’s Road to Damascus?
The Italian unions are threatening to strike against pension reform, while Berlusconi says government plans to reform Italy’s expensive welfare system are “necessary, fair and wise” (Silvio ‘el savio’?). The Unions say: “There is no pensions emergency. The government…is dramatizing the pensions problem. It doesn’t correspond to reality,” while Corriere della Sera finds a new Berlusconi, one who is a ‘reformed’ character who “For the first time…..turned his back on the miraculous optimism and creative economic recipes of the last two years and smiling persuasively,……tried to reassure people, to win more of their trust”. Meantime one Bank of America economist is reported as saying that “the reform is very weak. They should have gone for something much stronger but that’s more to do with internal opposition rather than the union threat”.
So where are we, is the pension reform question simply an excuse to have a battle with the unions, or is there a real problem in Italy? My own feeling is the latter. In a way I find myself agreeing with Pedro Solbes (which is why, pragmatically I would prefer him not to resign over the Eurostat scandal, although ethically I think he probably should). We have focussed too much on the question of the 3% limit on the decifit, and not enough on the level of the debt (Italy’s debt is currently over 100% of GDP). Even with this small reform Italy’s financies still look very precarious. But cutting pensions, as we can see, is not popular. So which is it? Can Europe reform itself and face up to its demographic reality, or are we going to have to go for ‘fiscal trainwreck’ US style? Do our politicians have more in common with the US ones than we like to imagine?
The Last Question, or How to Embarrass Tony Blair.
I just watched the press conference Gerhard Schroeder, Jaques Chirac, and Tony Blair gave after their talks regarding Iraq in Berlin today. The last question came from a British journalist whom I wasn’t able to identify so far. But her question was quite interesting.
She asked the British Prime Minister whether he wasn’t embarrassed talking to his European colleagues given that (so many people believed) he was only an envoy for George W. Bush (from my memory, I couldn’t find a transcript so far).
Well, I don’t know if he was actually embarrassed when talking to his colleagues, but he was certainly embarrassed to get this question. I somehow had the impression that he was blushing a little bit when Gerhard Schroeder took over and answered the question for Mr Blair, saying something along the line of “Tony Blair came as himself, talked as himself, and will also leave as himself” before Jaques Chirac added that this is “a question so far out of the imaginable that not even the three governments’ communications people were able to dream it up it in their briefing to the heads of state”.
Unimaginable? Apparently not. Embarrassing? Definitely so.
Not the European quote of the day
“That was a much more benign dictatorship ? Mussolini did not murder anyone.
Mussolini sent people on holiday to confine them” – Silvio Berlusconi (Google News has a range of stories about it here)
Some thoughts
Scott said in comments to the Anna Lindh post: “They also claim that Sweden has a fairly high murder rate by European standards. Considering how often reports on this murder have evoked how safe Sweden is, and how politicians hardly need bodyguards, I found this claim very surprising.”
It turns out we’re at the EU average, but his comment did spawn these thoughts of mine:
Perhaps it wouldn’t be that surprising. The difference between crime frequency between the US and Sweden surely is huge, but I suspect the difference in how safe people feel is even greater. I know that crime was a much bigger election issue in for example France and other countries than in Sweden last year. It’s possible we have somewhat more crime than a some other countries, but feel a lot more safe and unconcerened than them.
An interesting thing I read is that residents of the poor immigrant suburbs of Stockholm felt much, much more unsafe than residents of neighbouring middle class neighbourhoods, to the point where it was seriously detrimental to their quality of life, even though the incidence of violent crimes was rougly similar.
People’s perceptions are (in this regard) more influenced by the media, by prejudice, and by the mood of the culture, than they are by actual facts.
As to not using bodyguards; we already had the Palme murder, and still it’s only the prime minister that always uses bodyguards. From what everyone tells me, most countries are different, I would guess that includes even ones without comparable experiences. It’s a cultural issue.
Partly it’s a question of our self-image and what I discussed above, but I believe it’s also because in some ways the political elites aren’t as far apart from the electorate as they are in many other countries. And what’s worth noting is that I’m not talking about the electorate’s attitude, but that of the politicians. To stop shopping in department stores and taking the train, etcetera, to stop living more or less like an ordinary middle class person, is an intolerable sacrifice for many Swedish politicians on the highest level. I’m only speculating here, but is that really as true of say French politicians?
This isn’t a minor thing, but a great strenghth of Swedish democracy, and that’s one reason why this is so horrible. On the other hand, again looking at the Palme case, maybe things will mostly stay the same after all.
Anna Lindh 1957-2003
She passed away in the early morning.
The murderer is still not caught. They have the murder weapon though, so maybe this won’t be another giant screw-up like the Palme investigation.
Apparently they think it was premeditated. The murder may or may not have to do with politics, but the circumstances, especially using a knife rather than a gun, suggest to me a lone perpetrator, nothing organized.
Lindh was seen as an unusually talented foreign minister and politician. Apart from everything else, it’s a great loss for the Social Democrats. For all Swedes, I suppose.
Anna Lindh stabbed
Anna Lindh, our foreign minister (and G?ran Persson’s heir apparent) was repeatedly stabbed this afternoon in a exclusive department store in Stockholm. She’s seriously wounded. The assailant is unknown and still at large.
Palme all over again. God…..
Update: According to the latest report, “Her condition was serious but not life-threatening, police spokeswoman Stina Wessling told AFP Wednesday.” Thank God.
Update 2: As far as political implications… It will have an effect on Sunday’s referendum insofar that all campaigning is supended for now. I’m sure it’ll boost the yes side to some degree, (she was a leading proponent, and the anti-establishment sentiment that has propelled the no side might be turned to its opposite) but probably only marginally, at least now that it appears she’ll survive.
Update 3:
I don’t really have any idea at all. Whatever.