Tag Archives: Not Europe

Then and now

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Billmon, in a very eloquent post, says nothing. All he does is put up a series of quotations. Yet his message couldn’t be clearer; or more correct.

Lest visiting American wingnuts misunderstand me: I do not assert that Billmon is correct in inviting us to infer that Donald Rumsfeld is guilty of war crimes. That question would be decided by a court, in the extraordinarily unlikely event that Rumsfeld ends up before one.

No, what Billmon gets undeniably right is the far bigger and broader and more fundamental idea that (to use the words of Telford Taylor with which Billmon’s post comes to a close) ‘law is not a one-way street’. Whether a government is good or bad is decided by what it does and refrains from doing; not by who its members are or by the justifications they offer for their acts and omissions. That goes for the current government of the USA, and it goes equally for every other government entrusted with the running of a state.
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For Our Washington DC Readers

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Both of you.

John Barry, author of Rising Tide a rather timely book about flooding and New Orleans and of The Great Influenza a rather timely book about the 1918 pandemic, will be half of a panel about hurrican Katrina at Politics & Prose bookstore this Friday at 7pm. The store is at 5015 Connecticut Ave NW, and if you don’t know it already, you’re in for a treat.

Being Right After The Event

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The FT has a piece on the growing tensions within the Republican tent over Iraq.

If we quit now, said Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, in a speech at Princeton University last month, we will embolden every enemy of liberty and democracy across the Middle East. We will destroy any chance that the people of this region have of building a future of hope and opportunity. And we will make America more vulnerable.

She is right. This was always the risk, that the objectives were unrealistic and that the US would come out weakened, but it seems that at the time few were willing to listen.

Kanan Makiya, an outspoken proponent of the war who is documenting the horrors of the Saddam regime in his Iraq Memory Foundation, opened the AEI meeting by admitting to many dashed dreams.

He said he and other opposition figures had seriously underestimated the powers of ethnic and sectarian self-interest, as well as the survivability of the constantly morphing and flexible Ba’ath party. He also blamed the Bush administration for poor planning and committing too few troops.

Well this seems to be another example of what at times rather than shouting it may be better from time to time to listen to what your opponents are actually saying. If you strip out the WMD argument, concern about “ethnic and sectarian self-interest” and the impact of this on any subsequent political process was always the major preoccupation of those who had doubts.

We Was Robbed

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In Brazilian football this seems to be the case, quite literally!

For all that they say about detesting corruption in public life, most ordinary Brazilians do not see it as something with a direct impact on their own lives. But one scandal has caused personal offence to millions.

“I was knocked sideways,” says Catarina Pedroso, an 18-year-old psychology student and dedicated follower of Palmeiras, one of the big São Paulo football clubs. “At matches everyone shouts out juiz ladrão [“referee, you’re a thief”] but you don’t expect it actually to be true.”

Grand Larceny?

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Crickey, this really does seem to fall under the definition of what you could call a scandal. According to the Independent’s Patrick Cockburn one billion dollars was plundered from Iraq’s defence Ministry between June 2004 and February 2005 (during the government of interim prime minister Iyad Allawi):

“It is possibly one of the largest thefts in history,” Ali Allawi, Iraq’s Finance Minister, told The Independent. “Huge amounts of money have disappeared. In return we got nothing but scraps of metal.”

So – What Did Happen to Iraq?

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A few weeks ago, if you can cast your mind back that far, the big story was apparently something to do with a country called Iraq that was trying to agree among itself on its future constitution. After multiple deadlines were breached, two of the factions in the country decided to impose the constitution on the other by their majority. But then, they hesitated. The text was amended, but not by the drafting committee..

And then there was a hurricane. Not that it was one anywhere near Iraq, where they don’t have hurricanes, but it still knocked the whole thing off the agenda. And the Iraqis had a particularly horrible disaster of their own. So – what did happen to that constitution?

Well, it seems nothing happened to it. They have done absolutely nothing about it since then – it still hasn’t gone before Parliament, and even its opponents haven’t held the meeting to draft a counter-constitution they promised. What has been going on is that the killing has kept up at a rate of about thirty a day. August saw the deaths of 85 US servicemen. And, worryingly, there are signs that after a period of quiet, what I call the New-Old Iraqi Army has entered the lists again.
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Katrina and the Waves

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As Edward suggests below, the macroeconomic effects of Katrina are just now becoming known, much less felt or sorted out.

One item that will be much more widely reported is that in addition to all of the petrochemical industry located there, New Orleans was the linchpin of the Port of South Louisiana. The port is the largest in the United States by tonnage, and the fifth largest in the world. Only Rotterdam, Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong are larger.

Stratfor reports, “Fifteen percent of all US exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe.” Anything from Montana to Ohio that’s sent to the world in bulk passes down the Mississippi River and past New Orleans. Virtually all of it is loaded onto oceangoing vessels at the PoSL. The port is expected to be closed for at least three months. This is a significant disruption in world trade.

The refinery outage is a serious issue. Even if they were not damaged by the storm, their staffs are probably scattered throughout the region, and not all will have survived. The refineries are also built to be run continuously and brought offline rather slowly. The rapid shutdown and long-term power outage may have done more damage than the storm itself. And they were all running flat-out before the storm to meet high demand.

The big question is consumer spending and demand. If gas prices take enough household income to cause cutbacks in other areas, what will that mean for the American economy? How sharp a drop in growth should we expect? And can the global economy run without the great engine of American consumer demand?

We may be about to find out.

This Is Not A Happy Day

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Hot on the heels of Dougs update on the tragedy which is taking place while we watch in Louisiana, comes this distressing news from Iraq:

More than 600 Iraqi Shi’ites died in a stampede over a Tigris River bridge in Baghdad on Wednesday, panicked by rumors a suicide bomber was about to blow himself up, an Interior Ministry source told Reuters….

A police source said large crowds had been heading to the Kadhimiya mosque in the old district of north Baghdad for a religious ceremony when someone yelled that there was a suicide bomber among them.

“Hundreds of people started running and some threw themselves off the bridge into the river,” the source said.

“Many elderly died immediately as a result of the stampede but dozens drowned, many bodies are still in the river and boats are working on picking them up.”

Getting Too Much Of A Good Thing

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China is getting worried about the impact of the internet on one of its national passtimes:

China on Tuesday introduced an ?anti-online game addiction system? intended to protect players from the mental and physical perils of spending too much time in front of computers.

The system, which will encourage players to play less by cutting the benefits they gain in online games, is to be implemented by local internet companies that have signed a code of conduct drawn up by China’s press and publications administration.