Tag Archives: Transition and accession

Turkey vs EU

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In both the French and Dutch No camps some voices were raised against Turkey entering the EU. Via Dutch weblog Sargasso I found a very interesting entry at Turkish weblog Turkish Torque. One excerpt:

It seems like AKP, like many Turks, has been discouraged by the French and Dutch referenda. This will only strengthen the hand of all the parties that have accused AKP with “selling out” national interests to the EU membership dream. (…) Letting go of the EU project would be a radical shift in foreign policy with serious repercussions on many foreign and domestic issues ranging from Cyprus to the re-trial of Ocalan.

It seems that the consequences of the demise of the Constitutional Treaty may reach further than ‘just’ an institutional crisis within the EU itself. Sadly, I do not have the time, nor the knowledge, to go into this but I believe it would be worthwile to follow this one a bit more closely.

Sumer, Kurdistan and Turkish Membership of the EU.

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The FT is carrying a story today which draws our attention (indirectly) to the fact that events in Iraq may well have more impact on Turkey’s future accession possibilities than the French referendum vote. According to the FT:

“Iraqi Kurdistan’s newly elected regional parliament convened for the first time on Saturday in the northern city of Irbil, paving the way for the unification of a Kurdish self-rule area divided between two rival parties.”

Last week Juan Cole on Informed Comment reported on :

an ongoing dispute between the Kurds, who want an Iraqi federalism that gives “states’ rights” only to Kurdistan but not to other provinces, and the Shiites, who want a federalism that would apply geographically throughout the country. The Shiites want to create a southern super-province to serve as a counter weight to Kurdistan. Shiite leaders are planning a congress that can establish the instrumentalities for creating the region of “Sumer” in the south, which will consist of 3 consolidated provinces.

Given the instability in Iraq, it is hard to say where this will lead, but the Kurdish talk of realising their national aspirations is bound to make the government that sits just across their Northern frontier pretty nervous, especially since it is bound to see the creation of one unified Kurdish region in Iraq as a preliminary to subsequent incorporations. Definitely one to watch.

People Get Ready

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Laura Rozen thinks that the broadcast of a graphic video from the massacre at Srebrenica may mark a tipping point in Serbian public opinion and pave the way for the arrest of Ratko Mladic and his extradition to The Hague.

She quotes an international justice listserv:

B92’s Danijel Bukomirovic, speaking in Dutch on NOS Journaal at 20:00 CET, suggested between the lines the Serbian government had had a hand in the surfacing of the ‘executions tape.’ The dire economic needs of the country make EU accession talks the only option for a better future, but oppositon amongst a majority of the poulation against the ICTY’s demands for the extradition of indicted war criminals stands in the way. A mood swing amongst a public in denial of the Srebrenica massacres would pave the way towards the extradition of Ratko Mladic…

This is part of what’s at stake with EU enlargement, and indirectly with the constitutional treaty.
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Kosovo’s ‘Glowing Progress’

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In the light of what went on around yesterday’s post, I find the following report incredible:

“Kosovo’s U.N. governor will tell the U.N. Security Council next week the disputed province has made major progress on security and minority rights, in a report that could mark the beginning of the end of the province’s uncertain status.

In the report, seen by Reuters ahead of its presentation in New York on May 27, Kosovo’s U.N. governor Soren Jessen-Petersen, a Danish diplomat, details “significant progress” over the past three months on all eight “benchmarks.”

These are democracy standards set by the West as a condition for opening talks on whether the protectorate ultimately becomes independent, as its 90 percent Albanian majority demands, or remains nominally part of Serbia, as Belgrade insists.

Now either the Independent report about the absence of security of minority rights was false (in which case the article was even more absurd) or – more probably – the UN governor, not having read the Independent’s account of the state of things, is giving the clean bill of health in order to move things on, since the staus quo obviously cannot continue indefinitely.

Perhaps the key is to be found here: “The United States and
European Union want the talks to start in the autumn, to head off any risk of fresh violence from Albanians impatient to close the final chapter in the bloody collapse of Yugoslavia which led to war in Kosovo in 1998-99.”

This may be, and pragmatism does dictate that something should be done, but should we really be fooling ourselves that ‘major progress has been made’ if it in fact hasn’t.

Controversy Over Kosovo Refugees In Germany

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This is an updated version of an earlier post. I first retain the post as it was, then I have added some reflections in the light of comments received.

The Independent is running the following story:

“Germany is deporting tens of thousands of Roma refugees to Kosovo despite clear threats to their safety and dire warnings from human rights groups that they will face “massive discrimination” on arrival.
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Turkish Accession Talks And The French Vote

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People in Turkey are getting nervous. If French voters reject the Consitution Treaty later this month, it will be for a whole string of reasons, none of which necessarily are related to any of the others. Some will vote against the treaty because it is perceived as removing sovereignty too much, others because they feel it leaves too much room for national sovereignty (the ‘social dumping’ debate). But possibly ‘no’ voters hold one view in common: they don’t like the idea of Turkey joining the EU.

Now many of the consequences of a ‘no’ vote – if ‘no’ vote there be – are unforseeable. But one distinct possibility would be that among the items contained in the ‘plan B’ rescue package would be a proposal to review the state of play with the Turkey accession process. This possibility is exercising the mind of Morgan Stanley’s Serhan Cevic no end. Mine to. Full declaration: I support Turkey’s *eventual* membership of the EU.
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Uzbekistan Update I

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The latest news going the rounds today centres on the round-up of ‘suspects’ following the clashes and demonstrations in Andijon last week. Of course, numbers vary. The LA Times Moscow correspondent cites interfax to the effect that 70 people have been detained (interfax in its turn cites Uzbek Interior Minister Zakir Almatov).
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Turkey Under The Magnifying Glass

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The European Court of Human Rights ruled has just ruled that the trial of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan, which took place six years ago, was unfair. Turkey has already suggested that it is willing to conduct a retrial. Those of us who favour the proposal that Turkey should eventually join the EU, but who feel that this should happen conditional on a major improvement in the handling of human rights issues (amongst other reforms), can only welcome both these pieces of news.

Moldova – the inevitable happens

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As I end my two weeks here as a guest blogger, with events turning dramatic in Kyrgyzstan, the revolution that didn’t happen is fizzling out in Moldova. (See today’s RFE/RL Newsline, which unusually has no less than five stories from the forgotten republic.)

Those few of you who have been following the story may recall that the ruling Communist Party won the recent elections with 56 seats out of 101 in the parliament. However, President Vladimir Voronin will require 61 votes to get re-elected by the parliament on 4 April. The leaders of the two opposition factions who between them won the other 45 parliamentary seats pledged that they would boycott the vote, thus ensuring that no president would be elected and triggering new parliamentary elections.
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The Tulip Revolution

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As you probably know, there appears to have been a peaceful revolution in Kyrgyzystan.

Latest news.

Photos.

BBC backgrounder on the recent events

For general information on Kyrgyzustan, Wikipedia.

More from registan.net

Some original, not too informed analysis: The last years peaceful revoutions have all happened in countries with some democratic features, not straight out dictatorships. Kyrgyzystan was always the least authoritarian of the Turkistanic countries then became more repressive the last four years. I don’t think that’s coincidental; regime change in the other more repressive ‘stans seem unlikely.
But it’s noteworthy that it has happened in a more repressive country than Georgia and Serbia, with even less experience in democracy.

This revolution took almost eveyone by surprise. I think people, like me, just assumed have the possibility of change in the region, and maybe that was a bit lazy and prejudiced. It’ll be interesting if the new regime proves to be less authoritarian in the long run, like the new regimes in Serbia and maybe, probably, Georgia and Ukraine. Let’s hope so.