Macedonia: are you just doing this to annoy me?

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You remember I blogged a few weeks back about how Macedonia’s government was collapsing (because of demands from the Albanian party in the coalition).

Then a bit later I posted about how, no, it wasn’t collapsing after all — the coalition partners had reconciled.

Well, now it has collapsed again. Elections are on June 1.

I should write some about how this happened but, really, it’s just too annoying. Mostly I’m annoyed with myself. Balkan governments do this a lot, you see. Some of you may remember that Romania’s Prime Minister Tariceanu quit in 2005, for instance, and then un-quit a few days after, before elections could be triggered. (He’s still PM almost three years later.) And I don’t want to think about how many false alarms there have been in Serbia.

Perhaps I should try to draw some general principle from this, but, again, I’m too annoyed. I wish the Macedonians well in their electoral endeavours, and now I’ll go post about something else.

(Mind, people who know what’s going on and want to talk about it are welcome to do so. Comment away, please.)

Berlusconi III: Revenge of the Sithio

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Haven’t we seen this movie before? Will it be any better this time? Can Italy afford another round of Silvi B?

I know what could make this a great term of office! Start a new campaign: Tyrolia is only Italian! Because it’s worked so well for Greece…

Update: I see that David is as enthusiastic as I am.

Berlusconi wins

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The old bastard pulled it off. Seems to get fairly solid majorities in both chambers. Veltroni just conceded.

There’s was even more disgust at the political process than usual this election. Lots of scandals and Beppe Grillo rallies. Some dude ate his ballot, etc. So turnout was lower than usual this year. I gotta assume that hurt the left.

So they’re on track to have ten years of Silvio in a twelve year period, quite possibly. At least after that he’ll be to old to run again (He’s 71 now). The evil dorks, Lega Nord, had a great day too. Lovely times ahead for Italy.

There are quite a few of us

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In today’s Wall Street Journal Europe, Gareth Harding does a nice job describing the frustration of a UK citizen who has lost the right to vote as a result of long-term residency outside the UK — a feature that only dates from 2002 legislation.  It’s little consolation, but the Irish voting regimen for its many emigrants is even harsher, with voting eligibility gone as soon as you’re off the register in your former home county, and that happens once you no longer live there.   As Harding points out, the situation leaves emigrants without a vote in either their country of citizenship or residence.  Of course the counterarguments are well known, ultimately relating to whether someone living abroad is truly a participant in domestic politics.  It certainly tests the notion of what the European Union is supposed to mean to the citizens of its member countries.

Is 2008 Make Or Break Year For Italy’s Economy?

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As Italians head to the polls this weekend in order to pick what will be their 62nd government in 65 years (in an election which is being held three years early to boot, due to the collapse of Romano Prodi’s outgoing administration) one odd detail seems to stand out and sum up the multitude of political and economic woes which confront Italy at the present time: we still don’t have economic growth figures for the last quarter of 2007. Now this situation may well be an entirely fortuitous one – Italy’s national statistics office ISTAT are in the process of introducing a new methodology to bring their data into line with current EU standards as employed in other countries (Italy yet one more time is at the end of the line here, but let’s not get bogged down on this detail) – but there does seem to be something deeply symbolic about all this, especially since Italy may well currently be in recession, and may well be the first eurozone country to have fallen into recession since the outbreak of the global financial turmoil of August 2007.

Perhaps the other salient detail on this election weekend is the news this (Saturday) morning that “national champion” airline Alitalia is near to collapse and may have its license to fly revoked, at least this is the view of Vito Riggio, president of Italy’s civil aviation authority, as reported in Corriere della Sera.

“If something isn’t done soon, everyone must realize that Alitalia is on its last legs…. The authority will have no choice but to revoke the airline’s license “in two, maximum three weeks if it can’t show it can find cash to stay in business”

And – as if to add insult to injury – only this week the IMF revised down yet one more time their 2008 forecast for Italian GDP growth, on this occasion to a mere 0.3% , and (as we will see below) a steadily accumulating body of data now clearly suggest that Italy is already in recession, and may well have entered recession sometime during the last quarter of 2007. If confirmed this will mean that Italy will have been in-and-out of four recessions in last five years. So the real question we should be asking ourselves is not be whether Italy is in a recession, but when in fact she entered it, and even more to the point, when will she leave? Continue reading →

afoe now running on WordPress 2.5

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Gentle readers, afoe’s backend has been updated to the latest wordpress. So far, the transition seems to have worked well. Over the next couple of days, the frontend will also receive a little facelift – and make the site a little faster. So, in case you’ve got the feeling that something doesn’t work as it did before, that’s probably why.

More on Karabakh, Much More

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Not too long ago, Doug Muir wrote about why Nagorno-Karabakh may be coming soon to a front page near you. Back in the mid-1990s, I wrote something much longer on the conflict there. (PDF, ca. 500K) Money quote:

Two of the least useful questions for consideration of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh are “Who’s right?” and “When did it start?” Both parties have legitimate claims, and both have legitimate grievances.

The 1994 cease-fire, which was relatively new when I wrote the piece, has held up ever since, at least at the macro scale. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Minsk Group, which was also relatively new when I wrote the piece, hasn’t solved the conflict. There’s a reason the piece is titled “Intractable Problems.” Actually, there are several. (The analysis is also a bit OSCE-centric. The organization is obviously not the only lens one could choose to look at Karabakh, but I chose it because it was useful for getting at overall questions of European order and transition.) The potentially worse news is what Doug wrote about: Azerbaijan has heaps of oil money and is putting significant chunks of it into rearmament. That may or may not tip the strategic balance, but it certainly raises the chances of renewed conflict. The sequel to the piece linked here was always going to be titled “Just Add Oil and Money.” Maybe it’s time to dust off the sources.

Some thoughts on Greater Albania, Part 1

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Okay, first thought: there is not going to be a “Greater Albania” in the political sense.

The Albanians of Albania, Kosovo, and Macedonia are evolving away from political union, not towards it. Kosovo’s new Constitution has “no union with any other state” as Article One, and that’s not just wallpaper for the internationals; the Kosovar Albanians, having finally gained their independence, have no interest in being ruled from distant Tirana. Meanwhile the Albanians of Albania are discovering the Kosovars are… well… poor. They’re happy to greet them as cousins, but aren’t interested in adding a large, poor, backwards and densely populated northern province. Macedonia is the only place you can still find enthusiasm for “Greater Albania” , and even there it’s increasingly marginal — the two large Albanian parties both are seeking their advantage within Macedonia, not outside it.

So why the post? Well, because even though there won’t be a “Greater Albania”, the Balkans are seeing a completely new phenomenon: the emergence of Albanians as an important political force.

Twenty years ago, Albania was a Communist hermit kingdom. The large Albanian minority in Yugoslavia was part of Yugoslav politics — dominant in Kosovo, negligible elsewhere. Albanians were not a significant political, social or economic force anywhere outside of Kosovo and Albania itself.

Today, Albanians have two countries of their own and a big chunk of a third. They’re a key minority in Montenegro. And in Greece, they’re set to be a huge minority in a country that doesn’t deal well with minorities. So the 21st century history of the Balkans is going to be, to a great extent, the history of the Albanian Question.

I think this will be a two-post series. In the second post, I’ll look at individual countries. In this one, I want to look at just one question: why do the Albanians suddenly matter? Continue reading →

Tibet and the Olympic torch – open thread

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As you all know, the Olympic torch barely made it through London. And the Chinese are pissed off about it. IOC president Jacques Rogge was not pleased either. From BBC News

“Violence for whatever reason is not compatible with the values of the torch relay or the Olympic Games,” he said.

Okay, first question for our readers to debate. Why were the OG awarded to China, a country whose human rights values do not seem compatible with the values of the OG either? And what does this say about the values of the international community and the IOC?

Second question. China did not occupy Tibet yesterday. In fact the process of colonisation has been going on for a few decades. Why should we get all upset now that China is organizing the Games? And when the Games are over, shall we still be paying attention to Tibet then?

Third question. Why should we even care? Business comes first, right? And, after all, you do not want to mess with a country the size of China. And, who knows, maybe the Chinese will be so pleased with our trade and their Olympic Games that they will change one day. Like we have changed our own ways. Or, have we?

Feel free to get as cynical as I am in answering these questions. In the meantime, keep an eye out for demos in Paris. From the same BBC News article:

The Paris police chief has said the flame will be protected like a head of state. The head of the Paris-based media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, said it had altered its initial plans for similar demonstrations because of the expected heavy police presence, but nevertheless promised something “spectacular”. “The Chinese have made sure that for a few hours, Paris will look like Tiananmen Square,” Robert Menard said. “I think it’s shameful.”