The EU: Nightmare of the Right

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We’ve been tracking the US hard-right’s increasing take-over of British Eurosceptic rhetoric for some time; first it was Tom Tancredo who thinks there’s a secret plot to replace the dollar with the “Amero”, now it’s Ron Paul who’s scared of the “North American Union”. The major difference is that he makes an explicit link:

“The world’s elites are busy forming a North American Union. If they are successful, as they were in forming the European Union, the good ol’USA will only be a memory. We can’t let that happen.

The UN also wants to confiscate our firearms and impose a global tax. The UN elites want to control the world’s oceans through the Law of the Sea Treaty. And they want to use our own military to police the world.”

The interesting thing here is that he lines up with a US hard-right view in government that any kind of multilateral agreement with binding force is unacceptably oppressive, but frames it as being directed at individuals in the US; how responsible, I wonder, are the more prominent people who agreed with him in the 1990s for the Bush administration’s lawlessness? To some extent, the drive to reject any legal constraint on executive power sailed under the flag of rejecting any constraint on sovereign power.

Amusingly, of course, critics of the EU from the left tend to assume that it exists to impose covert US (or, you know, something) control on sovereign polities, which if left alone would certainly choose true socialism. Propagandistically, we can’t catch a break; uniting the extremes is often held to be a sign that you have the support of the reasonable, but quite often it’s just that you’re dull.

Iraqi employees campaign

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This will be of interest to UK residents (and it’s worth noting that every resident, documented or otherwise, has access to an MP). I hope everyone else won’t mind my cross-posting it from www.perfect.co.uk.

Iraqis who have worked for the British Army – as translators, typically, but also in other roles – are likely to lose their lives once the army leaves Iraq and the protection they offer goes with them. Needless to say, this is a betrayal. These men and women took a huge risk in helping us. However, the government can reciprocate by granting these people – and their families – special asylum and free transport out of the country. At the moment the government is reluctant to do this.

Next Tuesday (9 October) there is a lobbying event at parliament: Committee Room 14, 7-9 pm. I’ll be there. My MP (Susan Kramer – bless her) will be there. Other MPs will be there. We will have Iraqi and British Army speakers who will explain the situation in detail and answer questions, and the event will be reported in the broadcast and press media.

We need to get every MP to come along, because this event will provide evidence direct from Iraq that every MP needs to hear. The best way to get your MP to come along is to go and ask them in person. Seriously, this makes a huge difference. Do it this week. If you can’t do that, then write a letter today. Then come to the event yourself. This is a blogger’s campaign: blogging has made this happen. We have made this happen, and we need to see it through.

(Dan Hardie’s resources for this campaign, including a proforma letter, are here.)

Lack of German Regulations, Part 1

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Germany has no shortage of regulations, useful and otherwise. But one thing that it does not have at the moment is a legally mandated national minimum wage. The United States, supposed home of neoliberal puritanism and other horrible things, has had one since 1938.

The stated reason within the German debate is that such a law would interfere in the autonomy of groups bargaining on wages and conditions. Indeed it would, and this is a feature not a bug. But the autonomy has clearly been that of groups, not of individual people. If you weren’t part of a group, you were out of luck.

The SPD and the larger unions are now moving into the late 20th century and pushing for a statutory minimum wage. Employer groups and the conservative parties, true to form, are resisting. I think it is long past time for a minimum wage, and buying an illusory autonomy at the cost of non-unionized workers has not been a good position for the German left to hold. My disposition fits very poorly with corporatism, and I am glad to see that it is being pushed back in this aspect as well.

It isn’t often that German life is under-regulated, but this one will do the country good.

Ukraine, “Orange” Isn’t Only The Name Of A Phone Company It Seems

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Well, three years after the famous “orange” revolution Ukraine is at it again. Voting I mean. At the time of writing only 60% of the votes have been counted, and the margin is a narrow one, but the pundits all seem to be suggesting that the bloc of of parties lead by former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, part of the Orange alliance, have done rather better than expected and might even secure a governing majority (in a neck and neck finish) in alliance with Our Ukraine, the party supporting Viktor Yushchenko.

Now analysing the details of the electoral process in the Ukraine is a bit beyond my ken, but Election Resources on the Internet Manuel Alvarez does have an excellent background piece on Global Economy Matters (including three maps of Ukraine’s most recent elections, which Serhij Vasylchenko kindly sent) which he is constantly updating. I also have an accompanying piece offering an in-depth analysis of Ukraine’s recent economic performance, so I will here offer here only those of my findings which I feel may be of most interest to Afoe readers. Continue reading →

French and German Deficits In The Light Of Comparative Demographics

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In case you hadn’t noticed, a right royal (no, not royale) row has been going on in recent weeks – a battle of the Titan-Presidents you might almost say – with the key protagonists being European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet in the red corner and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the blue one. There are many issues which separate the two of them at the present moment – ECB independence from political interference, the conduct of monetary policy for the eurozone, and the future of the Stability and Growth Pact among others. On the first of these I am with Trichet, we do not need more political meddling in the conduct of ECB affairs. On the second I am nearer to Sarkozy – although possibly for other reasons, as I try to explain in this post and comments. Here I will restrict myself to the third issue – the SGP – and try to explain in very simple terms why I have a certain sympathy for what Sarkozy is attempting to argue. Continue reading →

Post-National Elections: Poland

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After Spain’s post-national elections, Poland is shaping up to be another case of post-national democracy in Europe: the Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk turned up in London this weekend to launch a campaign swing pitching for the votes of thousands of Polish expatriates. The polls suggest the Poles are quite narrowly divided; the contribution of the emigrants might be decisive.

As an Polish academic points out, they are also likely to swing towards the Civic Platform:

“They are generally students or graduates and pretty open-minded. It’s hard for a xenophobe to live in London, for example, for too long,” he said.

“And these people are Donald Tusk’s electorate. His party, Civic Platform, believes in openness in Europe and doesn’t play on a strong ethnocentric/nationalist discourse, unlike the ruling Law and Justice Party.”

Is this a case of demographic politics as well as European integration? Arguably, the Kazcynskis have been keen to ease their unemployment problem whilst not doing anything to worry an older electorate by shipping annoying young people to the UK. Whether Tusk can bring off the reverse manoeuvre with their votes is a good question – only 6,000 Poles in the UK voted in 2005, the peak year for Polish immigration. However, this phenomenon will probably lag substantially.

Unsurprisingly, given the probable balance of forces, the Polish government hasn’t really done much to ensure that expatriates can vote – there is no postal voting – although emigration and expatriation are hardly rare in Polish history.

There have been repeated expectations that this year, or this decade, will see a “European generation”; but usually, the people who are expected to be this turn out to enjoy the benefits of integration without thinking about it very much. If there ever is, perhaps it will be Tusk’s people?

Diary of a Desperate Man

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At long last Amazon has brought me something I’ve sought for a long time: Friedrich Reck’s Tagebuch eines Verzweifelten. Reck (or Reck-Malleczewen, as he sometimes styled himself) is a footnote to the history of the Third Reich; but an interesting and important footnote.

Born in Prussia into the minor landed gentry, Reck never quite fulfilled what his family must have expected from a young man of his station. Indeed, he ended up a journalist. He’d be forgotten today altogether, I’m sure, but for the facts that he opposed the nazis and died in one of their camps. Continue reading →

Where is He? The Mysterious Dissapearance of Jean Claude Trichet

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Well this is a rather frivolous post about a fairly serious issue. Has anyone seen Trichet? (No, not Kelly, Trichet). I imagine the financial markets would like to know what he thinks. Or rather, maybe they wouldn’t, but they need to.

Basically this isn’t a case of quietly fiddling while Rome burns (and Q2 GDP, and September retail sales) but it damn nearly is (burning I mean, or was that Paris), and the Reichstags won’t be far behind. Meantime hardly a flat or house is being sold in Spain.

So with all eyes focused on US data while the eurozone economy is visibly tanking, or rather wilting by the day, where the hell is Trichet? Hasn’t anyone else noticed how he has suddenly gone missing? Strong vigilence is obviously over, but when the hell is he going to start explaining that he might have to lower interest rates, and when he finally does this how will the financial market activists respond? I mean some of them seem to have very little idea about what is actually going on at the moment. Over at DailyFx, for example, they seem to be under the impression that the eurozone is a country or something:

“As an export dependent nation, the Eurozone has a lot to lose if the Euro continues to rise.”

I think they meant Germany there, since France certainly isn’t dependent on exports, and Spain has a whopping trade and CA deficit which puts the US one really in the shade.

Actually the general tone of what the DailyFx analyst has to say isn’t so far from the mark:

The Euro made a new record high today despite larger than expected drops in German business confidence and import prices. Economic data out of Europe continues to get worse and if the Euro does not stop rising, the European Central Bank will be forced to verbally intervene in the currency. Don’t forget that the Euro topped out in late 2004 after Trichet called the moves brutal and he may have to do so again as German business fell to a 19 month low in September. This is a result of deteriorating credit conditions, a strengthening currency and tight monetary policy. As an export dependent nation, the Eurozone has a lot to lose if the Euro continues to rise. The only major benefit of a strengthening currency is lower inflationary pressures. We are already seeing the initial impact with import prices falling for the first time in nearly 2.5 years. Less inflationary pressure means less pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates. If we see a material slowdown in economic data, softer inflation may actually give the central bank the flexibility it needs to begin talking about lowering interest rates.

So this is the point. We are soon going to be into declining rates at the ECB, and then what is going to happen to euro/dollar. I ask you? Are the markets ready for this?

Even ECB-adviser and hawk Joaquim Fels now has the current ECB rate as neutral, and of course, if the fundamentals are deteriorating, neutral quickly becomes “overtight”. No wonder Trichet is hard to find at the moment.

If you are looking for more serious analysis of all this, Claus Vistesen has some over at Alpha Sources.

As for Trichet, after a long search I have finally located him, he has been in Holland, talking about the importance of demography for Europe’s future. Obviously he is rather more focused on the longer term right now. I can well understand why.

The grinch who stole talent

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Chris Dillow (of Stumbling and Mumbling), responding to Gordon Brown’s recent speech to the Labour Party, says that “economic success requires that talent not be unlocked, and remain unused”. So Brown’s call for the development of “all the talents of all the people” is “purest wibble” because “all profits come from power, and this means disempowering talented workers”.

Now Chris may be shooting for some sort of curmudgeon of the year award here, but what’s worse is that his argument is misleading. The first problem is that he politicises something which can’t be changed, which is the fact that life involves choice. Chris says:

… specialisation stifles many of our talents. The musician who becomes a lawyer never fully unlocks his musical talent. The cricketer who becomes a doctor lets his cricketing talent wither.

But these examples are chosen so to contrast the ‘world of work’ with ‘fun’ things. You could just as well say ‘the gymnast who becomes a lacrosse player never fully develops his vaulting skills’ or ‘the muralist who becomes a photographer never fully develops her drafting skills’. Even an imaginary society of extended lifespans and perfect leisure will produce these sorts of choices. I’d hope we can agree that Gordon Brown can’t be blamed for not having an answer to that.

When you do turn to ‘work’, of course, you have to agree that it does constrain people. This is because work is transactional: you have to keep your side of the bargain. But you get things in return, including things that help you to develop your ‘talent’, not the least of which may be a context through which to define your talent. The transactional framework of skill development is, in fact, wider than what is often understood as ‘work’. The trainee gymnast, for example, has to agree to stick to a certain diet and a certain training schedule. If he doesn’t, he won’t receive further coaching. So becoming a gymnast resembles work (even if no money changes hands). Many gymnasts might say it is work. Conversely, work can be fun and rewarding: you get to get better at something.

Of course, Chris would argue that while this might be an ideal formulation of ‘work’, most jobs just aren’t like that. Part of his argument is that the transaction is unequal: the ‘skills’ you get to acquire are in fact demeaning and – crucially – you’re often expected to work at less than your full capacity. True, plenty of jobs are dull and demeaning. But use any economic model you like – and Chris is using a Marxist model – the trends have been going the other way. There is more automation. There are more high skill jobs than there used to be; people live longer, and have longer retirements in which to develop other skills. There is more leisure time. Politically – and this is one of the EU’s finest achievements – there is greater labour mobility and therefore more choice of occupation. And there are more educational opportunities. Many of these things could be reversed – and our political culture will be one determinant of this – but drudgery for all is not yet a requirement.

Another problem with Chris’s argument is that he takes ‘talent’ as essentially personal. In Chris’s view, talent is a thing that lies within which can either be released or kept imprisoned. The latent premier league footballer inside the call centre operative; fully formed but denied opportunity for expression. I would suggest that a better way to think of ‘talent’ is as a predisposition to respond quickly to development in the context of a willing audience. Skills and admirers: for ‘talent’, you need both. On this understanding, latent premier league footballers don’t exist: there are only those who actually do play in the premier league. The rest (including you and me, possibly) are ‘other’ footballers. We might in some sense be ‘better’ than the premier leaguers, but we don’t have their audience. Or look at it from the other end. Imagine that the number of premier league clubs were halved tomorrow (the TV audience has declined). None of the premier leaguers are changed, physically. Their passing and dribbling skills are undiminished. But now, suddenly, half of them are no longer premier league players. So was that talent ever fully theirs?

This is significant in the context of increasing diversity, which has been the trend. There are more kinds of sports than there used to be (new sports get invented). Handball is popular in Germany but not – so far – in Britain: after the 2012 London Olympics this could change. And it’s not just sports: there are more kinds of job than there used to be. Necessarily, the ‘audience’ for each is smaller. What does this mean for talent? Less opportunity, or more? We seem to have to give a mixed verdict.

Finally, there’s personal experience. My experience of work is that there’s no limit to how challenging you can make it. You can aim to make it easy, of course, and that’s a sensible aim. But despite occasional idiocies, there are regular opportunities to do things in a new way. I think this is true at least of every profession. By contrast, here is Chris’s view of the way things work in medicine:

If you had to go to hospital for a minor operation, who would you rather perform it: the brilliant surgeon for whom the operation is a dull routine one, or the young and mediocre one for whom it’s a challenge requiring full use of their talent?

I suspect this situation never arises, and not just because surgeons, like most people, tend to work in teams so as to combine experience. The young surgeon will be committed to doing her job well – on the basis of her training – and the older one is likely to want to innovate. Both are good.