Wow, was I wrong

Posted on by

It’s just three weeks since I wrote this entry about the prospects for EU expansion in the Western Balkans. And in that short time, several of my predictions have been proven wrong.

— Croatia’s has been allowed to start negotiations for candidacy.

— Serbia has been allowed to start negotiations for a Stabilization and Association Pact.

— And, most unexpectedly of all, Bosnia has also been allowed to start SAA negotiations.

I titled that entry “Slowed or Stalled?” It turns out the answer was, “Neither! Damn the torpedoes, and full speed ahead!”
Continue reading →

Merkel is in?

Posted on by

FT says a deal will be reached shortly, and Merkel will be chancellor. Schröder is out.

Ms Merkel’s expected victory in the battle for the chancellorship is likely to be announced on Monday, following a meeting on Sunday evening in Berlin between Mr Schröder and Ms Merkel, according to the SPD politicians, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The two leaders met on Thursday evening for four hours to agree the framework of a SPD-CDU grand coalition, but refused on Friday to disclose details. The talks also include SPD leader Franz Müntefering, and Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber.

Officials close to Mr Schröder said the chancellor would not become vice chancellor and foreign minister in the coalition, despite pressure from within the SPD for him do so.

The SPD may be given an equal number of cabinet posts as the CDU and be offered first choice of ministries to control, the MP said. SPD officials said these could include the foreign, economics and family ministries.

In addition, the CDU is almost certain to give the SPD assurances – even ahead of lengthy coalition talks expected to start next week – that it will drop key elements of its more radical economic reform agenda, such as changes to job protection and collective bargaining rules.

Problems. And Games.

Posted on by

Unfortunately, following our recent move to a different hosting provider, some Euros in the Fistful are still experiencing technical difficulties when trying to post. We’re trying to solve the problem as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, other people are experiencing problems as well. The “K-question”, the question who will become the next Chancellor, and presumably the amjor stumbling block on the way to true coalition negotiations between the CDU and the SPD, is still as close to a solution as it was when the polls closed on September 18. Both parties are still hoping the other one will blink first.
Continue reading →

The Atlanta Newspaper

Posted on by

Reading the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the occasional benefit beyond keeping me informed of the ups and downs of my favorite baseball team (they’re tied 1-1 with Houston in the first round of the playoffs). Atlanta is the home of the US Centers for Disease Control. And folks there have recreated the 1918 influenza virus in an effort to understand precisely why it was so deadly.
Continue reading →

H5N1

Posted on by

Like catastrophic flooding in New Orleans, an influenza pandemic is not a matter of if, but a matter of when and how bad. Fortunately, John M. Barry has written books about both. Until the definitive story of Katrina is told, Rising Tide, Barry’s book on the 1927 Mississippi River flooding that left some parts of the Delta a 100-mile-wide swathe of water, will stand as the classic work on power and high water and the Crescent City.

The inevitability of floods in New Orleans is a matter of geography; the inevitability of a flu pandemic is a matter of genetics. The natural reservoir for influenza viruses is in birds.
Continue reading →

Two for the price of – what?

Posted on by

Hi folks,

It’s Brussels Gonzo, back again – this time as a full member of the team (thank you, David and colleagues). And since my first entry as a guest blogger dealt with Croatia’s membership application, and a later one described the unedifying scenes in the European parliament after their talks failed to start in March, it seems appropriate that my first entry as a regular FoE-er should talk about the linkage between yesterday’s two crucial decisions to start membership talks with Croatia and Turkey. (I hope this doesn’t too much repeat Tobias on the same subject yesterday.)
Continue reading →

Luxembourg compromise.

Posted on by

Something is happening. Although not in Berlin, apparently. The SPD’s steering committe has not (yet officially) accepted what appeared to be an offer from Mr Schröder to pursue coalition strategies that would not include him. Since the SPD’s chairman, Franz Müntefering, explained later that the party’s goal were still a government led by Gerhard Scröder as Chancellor, Mr Schröder’s statement could also be interpreted as tactical move aimed at forcing Angela Merkel to do the same, hoping that the CDU’s more intense internal rivalry might cause her to have to live up to her proposal. Either way, much ado about nothing in Germany today – Meanwhile, in Luxembourg…
Continue reading →

Is something happening?

Posted on by

As we have been able to witness with unfortunate regularity lately, not every election helps move politics forward. Fortunately, some still do.

While Sunday’s regional election in the Austrian state of Steiermark, which was widely expected to be the decisive reason behind the Austrian government’s determination that the treaty opening EU accession talks with Turkey – which were supposed to start with a (now postponed) signing ceremonyat 5pm CET today – explicitly include the option of a non-standard membership or so-called privileged partnership, did not help to overcome the impasse, the by-election in Dresden seems to have shifted the balance of power in the race for the German Chancellory to the extent that Chancellor Schröder told RTL television – before attending a meeting of the SPD’s steering committee this afternoon – that (my translation, German from Spiegel Online) –

“… this is not about me. It’s about my party’s entitlement to lead, and only the party leadership can decide about it. I will accept whichever decision will be made. I don’t want to impede the development of the reform process which I have started or the formation of a stable government for Germany.”

Continue reading →

Dresden.

Posted on by

The other half of Dresden has voted today. Early reports (based on 60 out of 190 precincts) by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF television indicate that voters learnt a lot about the intricacies of the German personalised proportional representation electoral system, by giving the local CDU candidate, Andreas Lämmel, sufficient “first votes” to win a direct mandate but not using their “second vote” to increase the CDU’s share of vote in Saxony to the point where the party would lose a mandate in the state of Northrhine-Westfalia. Instead many seem to have voted for the Liberals – the party apparently received about 17% of the votes.

The current projection would lead to the following Bundestag: CDU/CSU – 226 mandates, SPD – 222, FDP – 61, Linkspartei.PDS – 54, The Greens – 51.

This result would likely weaken Chancellor Schroeder in his struggle to remain Chancellor even in a grand coalition of CDU and SPD. But as nothing fundamental has changed, it is too early to say what will happen after Germany’s national holiday tomorrow. Still, given that Schröder was able to interpret the a-little-better-than-expected result of his party and the much-worse-than-expected result of the CDU and their Chancellor candidate Angela Merkel as some kind of plebiscite in his favor, voters in Dresden have certainly weakened this argument.

The Share Project

Posted on by

Today is Sunday and I still seem to be having technical difficulties posting on AFOE, so I’m doing this as a test to see whether I can mange to do something on AFEM.

Firstly a link from the Economist Great Thrift Supplement (of which I’ll have more to say as and when I can post again) lead me to discover this conference on the economics of ageing which is being held in Venice from the 6th to 8th of October 2005.

Looking through the agenda and participants, I discovered that Axel Börsch-Supan is presenting a session based on data from the SHARE survey. SHARE is a Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe and you can find a complete book-length summary of the most recent findings at the top of the publications list.