Far Less Migrants Left EU 10 Than Anticipated

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According to the German research institute DIW, the number of migrants from the EU 10 accession countries was far less than many anticipated.

According to the Berlin-based Deutsches Institut for Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), the number of people who have migrated from the new member states to the older members can be estimated at 150,000. Of them, over 50,000 arrived in the UK.

The DIW figures are lower than other estimates, including that of the UK government, which claims to have received some 130,000 work permit applications over the past 12 months. DIW explains the discrepancy with methodological differences.

In DIW’s opinion, those EU-15 states that have applied stringent immigration policies to prospective workers from the new member states could be missing out on an influx of much-needed qualified professionals.

Latvia Votes Yes

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The Latvian parliament approved the Constitution Treaty earlier this morning, by a huge majority:

“Latvia’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to support the EU constitution on Thursday, a decision lawmakers and analysts said sent a message from the new Europe to the old that the approval process must continue.

After several European leaders urged other member states to press ahead with the endorsement process after convincing rejections in the French and Dutch referendums, Latvia’s 100 member parliament voted 71 for the constitution with 5 votes against and 6 abstaining“.

The next hurdle will be the Luxembourg referendum, on the 10th July. This will take place as scheduled if the EU summit of 15/16 June doesn’t decide to change tack.

Meanwhile French media are announcing that there is a plan B, it’s called Blair. Tony Blair, they are suggesting, will seize the opportunity presented by disarray in the federal Europe camp to push ahead with ‘liberal’ economic reforms, leaving the institutional infrastructure to languish. Possibly the outcome the French fear most. Something like this may in fact be what happens.

Whew, What A Relief!

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The Bavarian cabinet is proposing a law allowing cars to be washed on Sundays and holidays. But only in the afternoons, you understand, so as not to interfere with church attendance. This is something like progress.

Now, since on average 7 percent of Germans attend services on Sundays, you may well ask what about the other 93 percent? And what of the residents for whom Friday or Saturday may be the week’s holy day? Well, you may well ask, but that doesn’t mean there are any good answers. But thank, er, Someone, for that old separation of church and state.

Another ‘euro’ sceptic

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Bloomberg’s Mathew Lynn has been pretty consistently skeptical about the workability of the common currency. Personally I find it difficult to disagree with the following:

“The euro, the common currency shared by 12 EU nations, will weaken considerably as Europe enters a long period of political instability. Recriminations from the collapse of the constitution will be played out over months, not days.

And the economics of integration that have dominated Europe for the last 30 years have come to an end. Forget convergence. The big trend in the next few years will be Europe’s economies going their own way, not with each other. In time, even the euro’s survival might be called into question.

“The initial reaction might be relatively muted because the markets had already discounted `no’ votes in both countries,” said Stuart Thomson, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Stanley Sutherlands in Edinburgh. “What it does do is put a stop to any thoughts of fiscal integration, because that was really the next step of the process. Without that, it is difficult to see what is underpinning the euro.””

Twenty Twenty Vision

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The press this morning are busily assimilating the result of yesterday’s Netherlands referendum. The FT reports on a survey by Dutch polling organisation Interview-NSS, which identified up to twenty different issues which influenced the no vote.

Top of the list the list was a fear that the Netherlands would lose influence in a Europe that would favour large countries.
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Another Day On Euro Watch

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I’ll keep tracking the euro again today, and updating as appropriate. I’ve just posted some stuff in the comments section of Afoe:

Looking at the newspapers the euro steadied up overnight, but seems to be on its way down again in Tokyo. As I write it is trading at $1.2194, ten minutes ago it was 1.2186.

Firstly during the night the dollar firmed:

“Against the euro, the dollar fell to $1.2211 at 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.2179 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It was also at 108.64 yen, from 108.76. The dollar traded as high as $1.2160 per euro yesterday, the strongest since Sept. 20,”
Bloomberg.

The general consensus seems to be that the euro will rebound, since that is what the technical charts say it will do. Be these are not ‘normal’ trading circumstances and this view may not be appropriate.

Strategists at National Australia Bank hold what seems to me a reasonable perspective:

“Barring news of a sharp slowdown in the US, the euro is set to test 1.2000 and then 1.1760, the NAB strategists said, adding that the market focus is now turning to US non-farm payroll data for May to be released on Friday”.

I think we are in the hands of events, with a definite downside risk on the euro. So lets wait and see how they unfold.

Update 1: 9:30 CET. The euro is now staging a strong rally $1.2260 at the time of writing. Among other factors which may be affecting this is a speech by Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher which suggested the Fed tightening cycle may be nearly over. This is being widely interpreted as Greenspan testing the water. It is also something I have been arguing for the last couple of weeks: Europe’s weakness is now setting limits to monetary policy in the United States.

And It’s Another No

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The first exit polls have just been announced in the Netherlands. The first estimate is 63% No, 37% Yes. (I may have to update this, as I have no numbers on abstention).

Let the debate continue!

Update: The euro just broke under the $1.22 level, it is currently at $1.2179 in US trading. Tomorrow is going to be a long hard day somewhere. (22.14 CET).

Irritation.

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Over on Crooked Timber, Maria Farrell is being haunted by the sheer gaul of them, and consequently expressing her irritation with France and the French, not just

[f]or falling asleep at the wheel in 2002 and letting back in to the Elysee a fraud who has no vision for France, no values apart from expediency, and whose number one professional objective was using the office to stay out of jail.”

But also for pretty much everything else imaginable – so go read her post.
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He Would Say That Wouldn’t He II

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In some ways I think this story may run and run over the months to come. Bloomberg have an update on their earlier article. According to the latest account:

1/. The German Finance Ministry have declined to comment on the Stern report that discussions took place last week between Finance Minister Hans Eichel, Bundesbank President Axel Weber and various economists on a possible failure of European Monetary Union.
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