Sheffield a la mar

I have to confess to having had a fairly sucky 2004. Most of the causes are personal, and frankly not very interesting. But, as an example, my plan to spend the holiday season in Tunisia was abruptly cancelled because my wife got chicken pox. So, needless to say, I’ve been looking forward to 2005.

The wife got over her pox just a few days before Christmas, leaving us scrambling to find a vacation that both fit our respective work calendars, didn’t cost too much, and wasn’t booked solid. Consequently, I found myself at Zaventem airport at four in the morning on Christmas day fighting a miserable crowd so I could spend a week at Benidorm, Valencia, Spain.

I can’t claim I wasn’t warned. I did know that Benidorm – and the rest of the Costa Blanca – is something of a joke in the Dutch speaking part of Europe. After a week there, I still haven’t been in Spain. As far as I can tell, thanks to daily discount charter service between Sheffield and Alicante, the Costa Blanca is simply a warm, low-tax part of Yorkshire.
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Predictions!

I should wish our readers a belated happy new year.

I noticed that last year Nick and a few of our commenters were bold enough to offer up predictions:

I?m predicting that the Irish presidency (which begins today) will make progress on the Constitutional talks, though maybe not on the Constitution itself (at least on the Giscard D?Estaing version) and also that in June?s elections, the EPP will remain the largest grouping in the Parliament, but the biggest growth will be in the smaller groupings and independent/non-aligned members.

The EPP have remained the largest group.

I think I’ll refrain from any predictions myself, but you can to make your own in the comments section if you dare.

Words and Deeds

Has it escaped notice that the brunt of the tsunami catastrophe has fallen on the world’s most populous Muslim country? One that has an active branch of al Qaeda?

This is an ideal time for Western governments — especially European ones — to do well by doing good. Conspicuous aid to suffering Muslims can only be to Europe’s benefit in the struggle against Islamic radicalism.

As spokesman in Indonesia for UNICEF said, “It needs to be almost a military campaign. … There need to be airports set up. What we’re looking at is re-establishing a social infrastructure.”

Right now, there’s a vacuum, something abhorred by both nature and politics. If the West does not fill it, bin Laden’s allies will. Sure, that’s a cynical thought among so much suffering, but here’s hoping that someone on Solana’s staff, or in one of the national chancelleries can summon the necessary cynicism to do well while doing good.

Yanukovych appeal fails

Ukraine’s Central Election Commission has rejected Viktor Yanukovych’s appeal against the result of the re-vote in its entirety, reports AP. Yanukovych is now expected to appeal to the Supreme Court.

His campaign manager stated: “We … call on our supporters, which are 15 million, not to split the state, to observe the law and not to recognize Yushchenko as a legitimate president.” He’s right on the first two points.

Turkey and the EU: Poles apart?

Like most numbers of the Spectator, the festive, XL-sized holiday edition is marred by the presence of Mark Steyn. But don’t let that put you off, there’s some good stuff there as well. And one of the better bits is an essay by Prof. Norman Stone on Turkey (Potential EU Accession of) (reg. req.).

For the most part Stone paints a picture of the old Ottoman Empire as something much less uniformly Islamic than some think. You should already be aware, of course, that what would later (in truncated form) become Turkey was a multicultural, multiethnic, multireligious state, but if you weren’t, Stone gives you a quick background. (By the time it fell apart, the Ottoman Empire had become the ‘Sick Man of Europe’; but for centuries it was a success.) What you might not have known, though, was that the orthodox Christians of the Ottoman realms were only too happy to be part of a nominally Islamic polity. The orthodox patriarchs and the Muslim sultans saw in the latinate West a common foe. Indeed my own suspicion is that the Greeks felt a keener enmity than the Turks. The sultan, understandably, might well have seen the theological differences between orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism as obscure and uninteresting (how many of us in the post-Christian lands of the west are aware of, let alone take much interest in, the distinctions between the theravada and mahayana strains of Buddhism?) To the bishops of the orthodox world, though, the sultan served (whether he cared about this or not) as a bulwark against the centralising domination of their brother-bishop at Rome.

But what set Stone off was a recent article in Die Zeit by Prof. Hans-Ulrich Wehler. The title of Wehler’s article, which formed part of the contra side in a Zeit-sponsored debate on Turkish accession to the EU, has some unfortunate historical echoes: “Das T?rkenproblem“.
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When words are not enough

Like most other bloggers, there’s really not much one can say about the Asian earthquake that’s not already echoing through the heads of our readers. The latest estimate I’ve heard is of at least 57,000 people dead, a number that’s getting too large to contemplate.

It may not feel like much, but we can all do something to help – the UN has already said that it will need the biggest aid operation the world has ever seen, and you can help by donating to one of the organisations that willo be working with the affected, like the Red Cross/Red Crescent. Please feel free to suggest any other ways of helping in the comments.

An Orange President.

While the official results of yesterday’s re-run Presidential election will likely not be announced for a couple of days, opposition candidate Viktor Yushshenko looks certain to win this time – if the country’s Central Election Commission has been doing a better job than in November. The BBC has calculated that he has “an unassailable lead” over his opponent. The numbers currently available on the election commission’s website do not indicate any self-evident fraudulent activities (thanks to Jonathan Edelstein for the link), and some of the 12,000 election observers were quick to assert that – while there may have been some fraud – this election was very likely sufficiently legal.

Despite their limited credibility among Janukovich supporters, the international observers’ verdict will carry an enormous weight with respect to a possible legal challenge of certain results already announced by Mr Yanukovich. It is unclear what his options are. Outgoing President Kutchma, a former ally, now hopes that Mr Yanukovich will concede the election after a reasonably short period of face saving legal efforts, the BBC reports.

If the orange celebrations on Kyiv’s independence square following Mr Yushshenko’s claim of victory last night are any indication, Kyiv’s center might well remain an orange bastion until Mr Yushshenko will have eventually been sworn in as President.

It might be cold, but Kyiv is likely the place to go for great new year’s festivities this year…

Exit polls: Yushchenko wins

KIEV, Ukraine (Reuters) – Exit polls in the re-run of Ukraine’s presidential election Sunday said liberal challenger Viktor Yushchenko had beaten Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich by a wide margin.

Yushchenko, who called crowds of supporters into the streets to denounce cheating in the last poll, scored 56.5 percent to 41.3 percent for Yanukovich, according to a poll by the Kiev International Institute for Sociology and the Razumkov Center.

A second poll, by the Center for Social Monitoring, gave him an even wider lead — putting his share of the vote at 58.1 percent and Yanukovich’s at 38.4 percent.

The World As Optimum Currency Area?

I was a little surprised to read in the Christmas edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (not yet online, subscription wall, in German) that Robert Mundell seems to have changed his mind. In his seminal 1961 paper about monetary integration, he famously stated that “the optimum currency area is not the world”. Now it appears he favors a sort-of worldwide currency union, initially comprising Dollar, Euro, and Yen (apparently, he’s also made that point earlier this year in Lib?ration (subscription wall, in French)).
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