Nose Count

As next weekend’s Brussels EU summit about the constitution is approaching quickly, it’s only too normal that all national players are digging their trenches and defence lines by publicly downplaying the importance of an agreement if the “national price to be paid is too high” while Europhiles of all nations are trying to increase pressure on them by painting a gloomy picture about the future of Europe should there not be an(y) agreement. We’ve been there, we’ve done that.


European intergovernmental negotiations are always like n-dimensional chess played with innumerable official and unofficial players and, alas, without any agreement on the rules. So how much more difficult can it be when there are actually some things at stake? A lot. David’s post below already alluded to this and by now the media are increasingly putting the summit on the agenda.
Today’s International Heral Tribune updates the Economist article linked to below and briefly outlines the curent state of the union – the Franco-German leadership duo is being mistrusted for fear of a private agenda (especially in Paris) and their bullyish recent behavior while, notably Spain and Poland are trying to use these fears to get a better deal for giving up some of their overproportional votes in the Council.


Institutional changes will clearly be the most difficult subject to deal with, not least because it’s much easier for the public to figure out winners and losers, which in turn increases the pressure on the people negotiating. But, again, EU agreements are package deals which are so difficult to disentangle that it becomes almost impossible to find out if anyone lost, or – if anyone got a better deal than the others. There’s always something in there for everybody.


So, as the IHT states,


“[i]t is of course possible that last- minute negotiations will yield a deal acceptable to all 25 new and existing members. Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister who is mediating the negotiations, said Sunday that he was “55 percent optimistic” that a deal could be struck at the summit meeting of EU leaders, which begins Friday in Brussels.”


It all depends on the layout of chessboard and those playing. Which moves are allowed, which are off-limits? What’s your opinion, what will be the outcome, if there will be one (which I am still rather confident about, although some newspapers are reporting leaked news that there are already backup plans to reintroduce the constitutional draft next spring). Maybe the blogosphere, still outside the public limelight – is the better place to discuss these kind of things these days ;)…

An MEP writes

British MEP Nick Clegg has an article in today’s Guardian, putting forward the argument that MEPs and the European Parliament are a lot more powerful than people give them credit for.

But the parliament most certainly isn’t irrelevant or unimportant. In the four years I’ve been an MEP, we have adopted legislation stopping cosmetics being tested on animals, boosting recycling, forcing the French to open up their energy market, opening up travel for British pets, boosting the development of renewable energy and biofuels _ the list goes on.

It is no exaggeration to say that MEPs are now Europe’s most influential lawmakers. The European parliament is blissfully free of overweening government majorities. Individual MEPs, regardless of party affiliation, exercise a degree of direct leverage over legislation unheard of in national parliamentary systems.

However, the credibility of the Parliament is being threatened by the ‘democratic deficit’.

Yet the lack of interest in the European parliament among voters threatens its credibility. Reversing the lamentable voter turnout at next year’s Euro-elections will be a defining moment…

As with so much in the EU, the European parliament suffers from a poverty of political leadership. Europe’s leaders created it in the first place. Now they cannot simply disown their creation. Political leaders everywhere must make the case for Europe and its institutions where it counts, at home. Don’t blame Brussels for voter apathy. Blame ourselves.

However, while the European Parliament may be powerful, it does seem that Clegg finds it hard to resist the temptations of London – he’s standing down as an MEP next year to be a candidate for the next Westminster elections.

The drafting of the constitution

For some reason, I stopped covering the constitution when I started AFOE. Since Cosmocrat has been on hiatus for two months, and Henry Farrell after joining CT generally restricts himself to subjects the US bloggers care about, there’s barely been any informed discussion of these things in the blogosphere, that I know of. That’s a shame. I will try to fill the gap, to the best of my ability:

This Economist article from a while ago is a good starting point.

“But the draft constitution has ambitious and arguably more important plans for the extension of EU powers in such areas as justice, foreign policy, defence, taxation, the budget and energy, all of which are now under attack. The most dramatic proposal is that EU policy on serious cross-border crime, immigration and asylum should be decided by majority vote. Several countries are now having second thoughts about this. The Irish dislike the idea that their system of criminal law could move towards the continental European model. Britain, Portugal, Slovakia and Austria are against the notion of harmonising criminal-law procedures. And if these articles on home affairs are reopened, the Germans, for all their determination to stick by the convention text, may be tempted to abandon their support of majority voting on immigration.

Britain, Ireland, Poland and Sweden also dislike the idea of calling the EU’s foreign-policy supremo a ?foreign minister?, since this smacks too much of a superstate. Provisions to allow a core group of countries to forge a closer defence union, from which they might exclude others, are also meeting opposition from Finland, the central Europeans and the British. Britain and Ireland, meanwhile, are leading the battle against any hint of tax harmonisation. And the British, after heavy lobbying by the big oil companies, are belatedly trying to insist on changes to proposals to create a common EU energy policy. A bevy of finance ministers are also keen to limit the European Parliament’s planned powers over the EU budget.

If many of these changes are made, defenders of the convention text will cry foul and start saying that the whole thing has been gutted. That would be melodramatic. Most of the details of the draft constitution are all but agreed: a big extension of majority voting, a binding Charter of Fundamental Rights, a president of the European Council, a ?legal personality? for the Union and the first explicit statement of the supremacy of EU law over national statutes. These are not small matters.”

Indeed, these aren’t small matters. What has been proposed is a fairly substantial transfer of sovereignty, as well as some other far-reaching proposals. The lack of attention paid to of these matters is bizarre and disconcerting.

The situation is particulary bad in Sweden and Great Britain, which are the two countries where I follow the debate. My impression is that while the there has been significantly more public discussion in some of the other countries, it has still been confined to an small segment of the population, and has nowhere gotten the attention it deserves. I’d love to hear that I’m wrong on that count.

The media bears a lot of responsibility for this. Are people even aware of what’s being proposed?

In coutries where there’ll be referendums, that should remedy the situation. Of course referendums have sometimes proved a flawed way of making these decisions, but representative democracy’s record is in this particualr regard tragically clearly worse.

In Sweden and Britain, the pro-integration parties have no interest in discussing these matters. The anti-integration parties meanwhile (Tories in the UK, the semi-commies and greens in Sweden) have repeated the same tired rant and silly hyperbole over any EU matter for fifteen years, they are the boy who cried wolf, and not interested in constructive criticism anyway. The commentariat seems strangely uninterested, along with everyone else. Bizarrely, despite having the most eurosceptic electorates, our governments have negotiated largely free from public pressure. (As opposed to interest group pressure.)

They are (again) changing our entire political systemsbehind people’s backs, aided by media indifference and voter apathy. It’s a scandal.

Now, as to the merits of the Convention’s proposals; I’m largely negative. I’m not anti-integration in the long term, but I believe we need deal with the democratic deficit before we go about transferring any more authority to Brussels.

The Charter includes various ludicrous things as rights and will invite lots of jusdicial activism, which is no good at all.

Having a president of the council with poorly defined will only create overlapping authorities, institutional warfare, make the decision process more cumbersome and even harder for the avarage citizen to understand.

It’s not all bad. I like that the Parliament gets more power. I like how it was done, the Convention. I like various other serious but minor stuff. And it’s not nearly as bad (or as radical) as the europhobes say. But I think the non-debate of the constitution itself demonstrates how dysfunctinal democracy is on the EU level, and therefore why this isn’t the time for closer union.

I’m so excited

Following certain rather snarky remarks by a blogger that shall not be named, I want to clarify that in the preceding post I’m not actually expressing excitement; I feign excitement. Or rather, I am of course excited and my faux excitement is a way of mocking myself and commenting on my excitement, and at the same time expressing my genuine excitement in an ironical fashion. Now, admittedly my excitement is caused in part by my appreciation for the silliness of these sort of things, and by my enjoyment of being ridiculous, and in that sense it’s not really seriously meant. So there are layers upon layers of earnestness and pretense in the post.

Vote AFOE

Wizbang is having a Blog Awards competition. We’re one of twenty nominees for Best Foreign blog (What an odd sort of category on the Internet one would think, but I’m not complaining.) Please, please, please go there and vote for us if you think we’re any good, because I really want to win this thing. I’ve never won anything in my life.

Update: Now here’s a good reason to vote for us, tell all your friends, family, and random strangers to do the same, pimp us on your blogs…
The frontrunner is currently Merde in France, the France-hating wingnut. (#2 is Tim Blair, the Australian one-man Sasmizdata.net) We’re third and are well positioned to stop him from winning. I daresay we’re easily the best of the ones with a chance to win. Keep the eurohaters from winning. Vote AFOE!

The poll is open until dec 14. I will occasionally bump this post till then.

The Dutch Auction

Following points made by both Frans and Elliott in the comments sections, the Netherlands may well in fact breach the 3% growth and stability pact limit next year. I bet Zalm is blogging away more furiously than ever. But who will be the object of his wrath this time?
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Kant for Rwanda.

It’s not a particularly European topic, but one I simply had to report. I just received a newsletter from the European Journalism Center pointing to a BBC story about the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda handing life sentences to several radio “journalists” who had called for the genocidal slaughter of Tutsis in 1994 including communicating to the perpetrators entire lists of people to be killed.


I understand that defending someone against such charges is not easy. But the defence counselors’ argument went beyond what I would have imagined possible: According to the BBC,


“Defence lawyers … had argued that the trial was an attack on free speech and the freedom of the press.”

Happy belated

Jonathan Edelstein celebrated his first blog anniversary two days ago. His weblog, the Head Heeb, is one of the best blogs I’ve had the fortune to read. He writes eloquently and authoritatively about Isreael/Palestine, Africa, Polynesia(!), Jewish communities around the world, Jewish history, and plenty of other topics. Most of his post are on topics that wouldn’t be covered in the Blogosphere if it weeren’t for him. I can’t really put in words just how great he is.

Congratulations Johnathan, and thank you for making me a less ignorant person.

Anti-semitism take three

“The EU report on anti-Semitism that the EU decided to shelve has been leaked to the Jerusalem Post, and is available here.” Via Eugene Volokh, and the Head Heeb. Neither them nor I have read it yet.

There’s undoubtedly anti-semitism in European countries. Speaking of Europe as one entity here is inappropriate, by the way.

There’s a fair amount of anti-semitsim among Arab immigrants, and some other immigrant communities, but not “Muslims.” Most people in the arab world are anti-semitic, often virulently, so immigrants take it with them, pass it on to their children. Isolation from their adopted countries limits positive influences. Subjected to racsim, feeds militancy, need for people to hate. Radicalized Arab youth appear to be the ones behind most harassment and violent incidents.

The general population: Anti-semitism, once quite non-trivial, has trended downwards since WWII. Now I read unsubstantiated claims it’s trending upwards. I think I’ve read substantiated claims it is still trending downwards (ie it is rarer the lower you go in the age brackets), but no link at the moment, sorry. May be as some say that more of them are less reluctant to voice their beliefs, in opinion polls or whatever, feeling the taboo is less strong.

Third category, strangely absent from the present debate, are Nazis. Nazis are a very small group, but violent. Not wayward youth or whatever, but serious-minded, militant, nasty people. Surely much of the violence comes from them.

The antisemitism of everyman bigots in contrast is rather passive in contrast, I don’t know if jews ever notices it, and it doesn’t appear to hold them down in their proffessional careeers and such, unlike anti-immigrant bigotry. So, relatively “harmless”?

Where do you find anti-semitic sentiment. I’d venture they’re overrepresenteed in anti-immigrant parties, Haider, i Haugen, etc, and probably underrepresented in leftist parties. (I’m center-right, btw.) This is connected to the question of a connection between anti-semitism and criticism of Israel. There’s a NYRB piece somewhere, citing polls saying that people supportive of Israel are more likely to be anti-semites than critics, and I think validating my claim about rightist/leftists, but I can’t find it anywhre on their site, even though it should still be there.

What percentage of pop. is mildly or strongly anti-semitic in the various countries? Surely far from a majority but more than you’d think (unless you’re a crazed likudnik.) What are the differences between countries?

Is anti-semitsism in fact more widespread in any or most European countries than it is in the US?

Lots of conjecture in this post, and plenty elsewhere too (some less upfront.) I need data!

Maybe I should read that report.

Update: Or maybe not. Jonathan Edelstein writes in the comments to this post:
“Actually, I have read it, and it does blur the lines somewhat – some of the incidents listed in the report involved offensive anti-Israeli slurs but nothing anti-Semitic as such. The report is also anecdotal rather than statistical and thus suffers from the flaws of all anecdotal evidence. There are certainly some scary incidents described in the report, and that in itself should be a wake-up call, but there’s no real way of judging how representative these incidents are or placing them in context.

I’ve never personally encountered anti-semitism any of the times I’ve been in Europe and I’ve seen the surveys suggesting that anti-Semitic opinions among non-Muslims are at historic lows, but I do know that a lot of European Jews are genuinely scared. Hopefully someone will conduct a rigorous study soon to see how serious and deep-rooted the problem really is.”

Amen to that. In the comments on his blog, Miranda, a Jewish German who’s strongly pro-Israeli, also says the report is crap. That good enough for me. The pre-fooled will of course still cite the report, but their minds were made up long before it even surfaced.

Stricter drug laws

(Published, then removed earlier version of this when i meant to save it as a draft. Apologies for the confusion.)

Yahoo! News – EU Agrees Drugs Law, Dutch ‘Coffee’ Shops Survive

This shows just how much policy is made in Brussels nowadays. This happens to be real bad policy, too (the small posession stuff.) But regardless of that, should this really be decided on the EU level?

Read somewhere else our minister of justice saying in essence the tide has turned, after 90s trend of softer drug laws. I’m sure it’s true w/ all the rightwing tough on crime rheotoric of late, in most of Europe.

So, a great victory for us. Yay.

I’m sure this will strike some of our reders as particulary bad news:

“Donner said his government was considering rules under which coffee shops would only be allowed to sell soft drugs to Dutch residents to meet its obligation to dissuade tourists from going to Amsterdam for drugs.”

Here’s some quite good news though:

“Drug use inside the EU has been stabilizing after years of rising sharply, according to surveys by the EU’s drugs monitoring agency in Lisbon.”
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