Rory the Tory?

File under “Who knew?” The Guardian reports that Rory Stewart has been selected as a candidate for the UK’s parliament from a safe (10,000 majority) Conservative seat. In one of those moves that makes me think that parliamentary systems are odd sometimes, one of his first actions will be to move so that he actually lives in the district he will represent. “I will be straight on to the estate agent in the morning,” the Guardian quotes him as saying. “I’m very much looking forward to living in the constituency and getting to know everybody.”

(Stewart’s been a soldier, a diplomat, a wanderer, a provincial governor in Iraq, a professor at Harvard and is currently a director of a significant charity helping part of Afghanistan, yet the Guardian web edition’s headline writer chooses to identify him as “Former royal tutor Rory Stewart.” What does that say about Britain? Or the Guardian? Or perhaps the Guardian’s perceptions of its audience?)

I would not have pegged the author of The Places In Between as a Tory, though on closer consideration I think he’s too much of a loose cannon an independent thinker to be much of a back-bencher at all. Anyone who drops everything to walk across Asia and spends the winter of 2001 walking across central Afghanistan is not likely to be fazed by a party whip. I haven’t yet read The Prince of the Marshes: And Other Occupational Hazards of a Year in Iraq, which probably gives a better sense of how he’ll do in constituent service. Maybe he’ll turn out splendidly. Still, he’s had a decade of changing jobs every year or two, is he likely to settle down to work in Westminster? (On the other hand, I asked the same question about Bobby Jindal, with whom I have a passing acquaintance, and he’s still on the job.)

Twice as Fast

Four years ago, I was boggled to realize that astronomers had been finding planets around other stars at an average rate of one per month since the first exoplanet around a main-sequence star was discovered in 1995.

On Monday, scientists from the European Southern Observatory (ESO) announced that they had found 32 new exoplanets in recent work. Moreover, that brings the total found to roughly 400. Instead of discovering a new planet every month, the average is now much closer to every two weeks.

What is the goal? The astronomers announced their findings at a conference titled, “Towards Other Earths: perspectives and limitations in the [Extremely Large Telescope] era.” The ESO instruments have led to the detection of 24 of the 28 known exoplanets with masses of less than 20 times the earth’s. The technology to spot earth-like planets around other stars is either on the drawing board or under construction. Key puzzles are now in how to characterize atmospheres around exoplanets, and how to deduce other characteristics of earth-like planets that the astronomers expect to find.

And in two weeks, astronomers will likely have found another planet around a different star.

I’m very happy we’ve workshopped this today

Royal Mail management is hiring 30,000 temporary workers, not to replace Royal Mail’s own workers who are going on strike – which would be illegal – but ‘to clear any backlog that might develop’.

Peter Mandelson is beyond sour: he’s curdled. He says “gale-force change” is needed for Royal Mail and drops all sorts of nasty hints about various Royal Mail customers shopping elsewhere in future. Well, we’ve come to expect that from him. Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat leader, backs Royal Mail’s managers: he says “taking the whole country hostage like this is the wrong thing to do”. Hoped for more from you there, Nick, I really did. I can’t find anything that says what the official Tory line is, but I’d be amazed if they’re backing the strikers. Finally, various private companies are lining up to take swipes.

Anyhow, I took a tour of a new-ish Royal Mail sorting facility a few years back. Think of me as one of those venture capitalists – I like to get a feel for the way a place runs, see how many cars are in the parking lot after hours, that sort of thing. Yes, it’s anecdotal evidence. Yes, my prejudices will be showing.

The facility was explicitly divided into two halves; the sorting side (basically one huge shed) and the management offices and staff welfare side. The security team had its own special room with a separate route in and out of the building (apparently to protect them from intimidation). Thieving from the mail does seem to be a concern. On touring the cloakroom I saw an employee hiding behind a row of coats; she stood very still while we were there, perhaps hoping that the group I was in would just go away. Which is exactly what we did. Maybe she was just bunking off, or maybe she was going through pockets; hard to say.

At the time of our visit, the sorting side was more or less deserted; it seems that sorting and delivery workers start early, then a whole bunch of them go out to deliver the mail they’ve just sorted. There was some machinery visible, but it was not, shall we say, a fully mechanised facility. The management side (furnished with colourful blobby chairs and break-out spaces) was busy in the sense that office workers were present. Some of them were in meeting rooms. I saw a sign on one of the meeting room doors. It said: ‘role play training in progress, do not disturb’.

From my recollection of seeing things first hand, and from what I’ve read recently, I’d say the situation at Royal Mail is like this. Relations between workers and management are terrible; the workers mistrust the management to the extent that any change to process (typically through mechanisation) is strongly resisted. On the other hand, Royal Mail ‘management’ have assembled plenty of padding between themselves and the hard, on-your-feet-all-day stuff; I suspect many of them are just going through the motions, or are doing make-work, all the while shirking the task of building a sense of common purpose. If my little vignette here is at all true to life, you have an industrial disaster in the making. And I would not lay blame on the strikers before looking hard at how other people in that organisation have been conducting themselves.

And it would be a shame to see Royal Mail stumble or fall, because I suspect there’s some good culture there worth saving. For instance, I’d much rather have Royal Mail deliver my internet purchases (yes, the internet will put Royal Mail out of business for sure) than the clown outfit called Home Delivery Network. The postie has some local knowledge; he or she likely knows you a bit, may even know that you’re out, and probably has figured a safe place to leave your package so that you don’t have to go through the redelivery mill.

I have to say the subsidised canteen was excellent, but would worsen your health if you ate there every day.

Fall of the European Left, revisited

Parties of the left are out of power in three of the Big Four now, and everyone expects Labour to lose the next General Election in Britain. Going down the list to the Next-Biggest Four, we have Spain (Zapatero’s center-left government hanging in there), Poland (center-right), Romania (grand coalition of the two largest parties; can’t exactly say left-right, because Romanian politics always don’t map well on that axis) and the Netherlands (bizarre Grand Coalition of Christian Democrats and Labour, with Labour far down in the polls and expected to be kicked out soon). It’s not unreasonable to expect that by next summer, Spain might be the only large country in Europe with a left-of-center government.

There’s a recent post over at Crooked Timber deploring this, and suggesting that it’s because

[We’re seeing] the end of the electoral strategy which began with Bill Clinton and which (arguably) is still being kept alive by Kevin Rudd in Australia. Basically, it’s the view that you can keep a balloon flying by constantly chucking out left-wing ballast. Which worked very well in the 1990s and early 2000s, but it does have a limited lifespan built into it. After a while, you run out of ballast to throw out and you find that the hot-air burners aren’t working any more; the traditional left-wing base of your party has switched off, the unions can’t provide blocks of support and you’re left as a more or less identikit technocrat party, largely indistinguishable from your opponents and trying to compete on the basis of more efficient provision of “public services”.

Well… maybe. I submit that this model works tolerably well for Britain (though I have some reservations); somewhat less well for Germany; and hardly at all for France. (Italian and Spanish politics I leave to those who are better informed.) Continue reading

Feed the techne

We had a presentation today from some impressively smart and determined people at Orangebox, a Welsh company that makes office furniture. Their ambition is to do ‘cradle-to-cradle’ (C2C) manufacturing; that is, manufacturing where a lot of the material you use to make your new products comes from your own older products, recycled. What makes this better than recycling, conventionally understood, is that if you know how a product is made, you know how to recycle it effectively. With conventional recycling, either the consumer or an open-to-all recycler has to attempt to separate out the various metals, polypropylenes, nylons, etc. and there’s pretty good evidence that they’re not up to it. For one, even a product as apparently simple as an office chair has upwards of a couple of hundred components. Worse, where dissimilar materials are bonded to each other in the way that they tend to be – if the manufacturer means those materials not to come apart – effective recycling is more or less impossible. The higher grade plastics get irretrievably contaminated through mixing with other plastics; then the only viable destination is the base of a traffic cone, or similar. Can you recycle a traffic cone base? No: the next stop is landfill. From LCD TV casing to landfill via traffic cones might be a ten year process. This is not really recycling.

Getting to be a cradle-to-cradle manufacturer is a challenge. You have to design products that are competitive in terms of manufacturing cost and quality, and which can be separated into their constituent parts when it comes time to recycle them, but which won’t fall apart in the hands of the user. You also need to know what those parts are made of. This is more of a problem than you might think. When you buy the feedstock for plastic components, you get shipped some boxes of granules; these, when heated appropriately, will flow nicely inside your stamping tool and set into the shapes you want. What’s in those granules? The manufacturer isn’t necessarily saying. To help get around this problem, there’s the interestingly named Environmental Protection and Encouragement Agency (EPEA). For a fee, EPEA will contact a materials manufacturer and get them to say, in confidence, what’s in their product. Without giving anything away, EPEA’s chemists will then say if that product is suitable for C2C manufacturing. As a work-around, this does seem to … work.

A while back, Dsquared suggested to me that the concept of embodied energy isn’t a goer. If your aim is to select products in the interest of sustainability, you have to contend with the possibility that you simply won’t know what the true embodied energy value of a product is. C2C manufacturing has a different emphasis. It aims at closed loops; all of the stuff just goes round and round.

Ireland’s slow motion fiscal crisis

There’s a “normal” path for a fiscal crisis.  Some vulnerabilities build up.  An external shock tips things over the edge.  The country struggles along for a while but eventually refinancing or rollover risk forces the issue: new debt can’t be sold and the Impossible Missions Force is the only available lender.  An ugly but usually effective correction takes place and eventually access to capital markets resumes.  Of course there are exceptions but that’s the broad outline and some 2009 crisis countries may already over the worst.  Then there’s Ireland.

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Obama. Nobel.

Holy smokes. What will the man do for an encore?

From the BBC:

US President Barack Obama has won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize.

The Nobel Committee said he was awarded it for “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and co-operation between peoples”.

Reuters quotes from the citation (The Nobel servers are slammed and super-slow just at the moment):

“Very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world’s attention and given its people hope for a better future,” the committee said in a citation.

Wow.

Sweden politely lays down the law

Not since the glory days of Gustav Adolf the Great has Sweden wielded such power in Central Europe.  It’s been a busy day.  First, PM and European Council President Fredrik Reinfeldt held a meeting with under pressure Czech PM Jan Fischer to discuss the status of Czech ratification efforts on the Lisbon Treaty (in an omen, Fischer’s plane was delayed).  The other two European “Presidents” (commission and parliament) were also there.   Reinfeldt’s careful formulation: “it is important that we are flexible and ready to act”, meaning that no more pressure on the Czechs on top of what is already there, but background preparations for treaty implementation will proceed nonetheless.  Meaning specific job descriptions and candidates for the positions of permanent Council president and foreign policy representative.   So formally nothing gets done prior to ratification, but things move at lightning speed once Mr Klaus gets out his quill.   In the meantime, the Swedish minister for EU Affairs, Cecilia Malmström, will go to Prague to gauge the state of affairs on the ground.

But wait, there’s more.  Sweden’s finance minister Anders Borg has put the cat among the pigeons on the fiscal restructuring package for Latvia, which is a complicated mix of support from IMF, EU, and Nordic countries.  Essentially he argued that unless the promised cuts are delivered in the forthcoming budget, the Nordic component won’t be delivered as planned.  And this as the Latvian government works on legislation to convert loans into the non-recourse variety.  While the specifics of these moves may be somewhat surprising, the big picture is that the inevitable dynamics of choosing internal devaluation over external devaluation are playing out as Edward has been warning here for months.

That’s a lot of action over 4 days.  We may not say it often, but keep a close eye on Stockholm for the next while.

UDPATE 8 OCTOBER: PM Reinfeldt had what sounds like a truly bizarre conversation with Czech President Klaus in which Klaus asked for a 2 sentence footnote to the Lisbon treaty.  This looks rather mischievous since the footnote could easily have been agreed at the European Council summit which gave Ireland the treaty clarifications that it wanted.

Socialists win big in Greece

This seems to have gotten very little attention, but Greece changed governments last week. The ruling center-right New Democracy (ND) party called elections a couple of months ago, and the result was that — predictably — they got stomped hard.

ND had a wafer-thin majority of 152 seats out of 300; they lost 61 (!) seats, and are left with just 91. The rival Socialists jumped from 102 seats to 160, which will allow them to govern alone.

Two of the three minor parties — the Communists and the Radical Left — stayed about the same. The third minor party, the Popular Orthodox Rally, jumped from 10 seats to 15. That’s kind of depressing, because the Popular Orthodox guys are assholes. They’re your classic Balkan Obnoxious Populist-Nationalist Party; insofar as they have a platform, it’s “Hate Albanians and cut taxes”.

One thing I still don’t understand is why ND called this election. Yeah, narrow majority, economic crisis, blah blah. The ND government was only two years old; they could have clung to power another couple of years. They didn’t expect to lose this badly, of course, but the polls made it clear they were going to get kicked out of government. Can anyone shed light on this?

As for the new government: they say they’ll enact an economic stimulus package. Otherwise, from this distance they look pretty similar to the other guys. Again, more detail is welcome.

That said, it’s noteworthy to see a left/center left party win power in Europe these days. (And in a landslide, too.) That hasn’t been happening much lately.

Trivia: outgoing Prime Minister Karamanlis was the nephew of a previous Prime Minister, while incoming Prime Minister Papandreou was the son and grandson of previous Prime Ministers. I would say Greece needs a whosekidareyou site, but on the other hand probably not — it’s not exactly a secret.

Treaty of Lisbon: Endgame

Today is a key inflection point in determining whether the EU will be looking forwards or backwards over the next few months.  Irish voters will have had their second run at approving the Lisbon Treaty by referendum.  The count begins at 0800 GMT and it’ll be worth checking the Irish Election blog for early word of the “tallies” (informal survey of ballots as they are sorted) as well as general reaction to the result.  There’s some possibility of anti-climactic process if the tallies or a reliable exit poll signal a clear Yes margin early on but there have probably been a few sleepless nights in government circles nonetheless.   Assuming a Yes vote, there will be 3 issues worth watching:

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