[16:36:17] David Weman skriver: hey, I just thought of something?
[16:36:25] Alex Harrowell skriver: yes?
[16:36:36] David Weman skriver: what’s the difference between realists and neoconservatives?
[16:36:45] Alex Harrowell skriver: tell me
[16:37:20] David Weman skriver: realists are bismarck, neoconservatives are wilhelm II.
[16:37:38] Alex Harrowell skriver: +1
[16:37:59] Alex Harrowell skriver: or worse, Conrad von Hotzendorf * (actually his reported political views are remarkably similar to those of NRO et al)
[16:39:27] Alex Harrowell skriver: what worries me most of all about this is that being Wilhelmine Germany’s enemy was tough, but it was nothing compared to being one of their *allies*
Author Archives: David Weman
Confirmed: Siberian methane oozing up
This scares me shitless.
Methane gas oozing up from Siberian seabed: Swedish researcher
1 hour ago
STOCKHOLM (AFP) — Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is leaking from the permafrost under the Siberian seabed, a researcher on an international expedition in the region told Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter on Saturday.
“The permafrost now has small holes. We have found elevated levels of methane above the water surface and even more in the water just below. It is obvious that the source is the seabed,” Oerjan Gustafsson, the Swedish leader of the International Siberian Shelf Study, told the newspaper.
The tests were carried out in the Laptev and east Siberian seas and used much more precise measuring equipment than previous studies, he said.
Methane is more than 20 times more efficient than carbon dioxide in trapping solar heat.
Scientists fear that global warming may cause Siberia’s permafrost to thaw and thereby release vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere. The effects of global warming are already most visible in the Arctic region.
Here’s the Dagens Nyheter article, in Swedish. The Swedish team had better instruments than earlier Russian researchers whose findings were mostly ignored.
If I ever have kids it’s going to be fairly late in life, when I can better gauge the chance that they or my possible grandchildren will live through an apocalypse.
By request: Croatia and the EU
Right, so I started writing something about Ukraine, Russia and Nato. There wasn’t an issue of time and energy for once, but I discovered couldn’t quite decide what I thought. I see some problems with this concept, but will soldier on…
Bob and SK wonders about Croatia’s EU prospects. Croatia is closer than other prospect countries of becoming members, but the Irish no dashed their hopes of a quick entry. France and some other countries stance here seems pretty indefensible to me, but maybe they’ll relent if the treaty woes goes on long enough. A new report points out what we all knew, that the EU’s ticking along nicely without a new treaty, and two or three more members won’t change that. I don’t know at what point there would be trouble, but my gut feeling is the EU could accommodate more members without paralysis than the EU policy elites seem to think.
In any case, I think Romania and Bulgaria would have maybe benefited from a longer wait, and the same is true of most current candidate countries, maybe even including Croatia.
Request thread
We’re borrowing a page from Matt Yglesias (who borrowed it from Ezra Klein). Put your suggestions for topics in the thread, and I or someone else will try to write something the next day. What would you like to read about?
Retro
The war has a retrograde feel says Charlie. I believe* it’s only the third conventional war between two countries since the Gulf war. They were far more common during the cold war era.
The other was the Ethiopia-Eritrea war**, and…Iraq. One hopes retro hasn’t become fashionable following a weakening of the international law. That would be very, very bad.
*Clashes between India and Pakistan and Ecuador and Peru didn’t involve declarations of war, although his war may still turn out to be as brief, we can hope, though maybe with a bigger death toll. The Armenia-Azerbaijan war went on after the Gulf war, but started as a conflict within the Soviet Union in the late 80s.
** So two out of three wars involves countries recently separated, which gives them a slightly retro civil war feel, which I suppose is a hopeful thought.
The American angle
Let’s take a moment to consider this para from Doug’s (the Doug in Tbilisi, that is) first post.
Second, what will the Americans and EU do? A senior State Department figure was here in Tbilisi last week, and I would expect that the Georgian side at least hinted very broadly about what was up. He would have to deny that, of course, in the way of these things. We can assume that the Americans did not warn them off.
(My emphasis).
If true, this has to be one of the most indefensible things the Bush Administration has done in the last few years. Saakashvili took a reckless gamble, and it didn’t work out.
The Americans have more or less encouraged Saakashvili’s dangerously confrontational approach to Russia, and have given them hopes of NATO membership, which was never going to happen. They may also have had unrealistic expectations about US support in the event of a war. This war would likely never have happened if the US had discouraged the Georgians [update: in the last few years. Not saying the low level visit last week was crucial, rather than telling.] The result is an probable own goal by the Bushies. In Rob Farley’s words:
Hegemony or no, the United States will have been unable to give significant military aid to an Iraq War ally facing the prospect of interstate war.” More seriously. This isn’t the end of the world, but it’s not great.
But for the people of Georgia, it’s a lot worse than “not great”.
…8th Circle disagrees.
Second Front
Forces from Abchazia, the other Russian-supported separatist republic, led by Sergei Bagapsh (sp?), has attacked Gergian forces in the Kodori area, says Dagens Nyheter.
Briefly noted
The Austrian Social Democrats have elected Werner Faymann as their new leader, before new elections in September, following the collapse of the coalition government. Faymann, currently down in the polls has apparently suggested there should be a referendum before any new EU treaties. I doubt anything will come of this, but a boy can dream.
Karadzic arrested
How about that. Surprising the new government would go so far.
International Workers Day
So is May Day a holiday where you live? It is in Sweden. (Well, obviously.)