Germany On The Road To Reform?

“Voting for the C.D.U. Sunday meant putting a stop to Schr?der’s reform agenda…..But in the future, if the C.D.U. has power, there is no stopping the reforms.” says Morgan Stanley’s Elga Barsch (remember her?). This argument draws attention to an important enigma which must be puzzling a lot of people. As the New York Times puts it:

If voters are angry about economic legislation that rolls back the social welfare state, and they take out their anger on the governing party, does that make more such legislation inevitable?

As undemocratic as that might sound, investors in Germany seem to think so. As financial analysts said chances of new legislation had increased, the country’s stock market rallied Monday after a stinging defeat in regional elections for the Social Democratic Party of Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der, which led him to call for national elections in the fall.”
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Le Petit ‘Non’

Well, if you believe Times (and after last weeks episode with the Independent I believe no-one), le petit ‘non’, like its equivalent le petit mensonge, is not all that serious after all. According to the Times, Britain is working with other European states to draw up plans to keep the European Union constitution alive if there is a narrow ?non? vote in France next week. Just a soupcon of ‘no’ will, in the end ‘help the medicine go down’.

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Schr?der: early elections in Autumn.

I suppose German politics aren’t entirely predictable anymore. A few minutes ago, German Chancellor Schroeder confirmed earlier statements by Franz Muentefering, the SPD’s chairman, that the current red-green coalition will seek a – constitutionally problematic – vote of no-confidence to allow the early dissolution of the Bundestag and hold federal elections in autumn this year.
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Uzbekistan Update II

Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary Uzbek government officials continue to dismiss eyewitness reports that soldiers opened fire on civilians during last weeks protests in the eastern town of Andijan.

Not a single civilian was killed by government forces there,? Prosecutor General Rashid Kadyrov said.

Registan notes that Kyrgyzstan has opened a refugee camp in the Jalalabad region: Nathan has more links.

Nigara Khidoyatova, head of the Free Peasants party, says her party has compiled a list of 745 people allegedly killed by government troops in Uzbekistan. She stated her party arrived at the number by speaking to relatives of the dead and that the count was continuing. ie she claims to have names and addresses.

Lyndon has some interesting background at Scraps of Moscow. Reuters’ Dmitry Solovyov is reporting that “Uzbekistan’s government on Wednesday took foreign diplomats to the town where witnesses said troops shot dead hundreds of people but did not show them the actual site of the massacre”.

The report contains a useful description of the visit, and of what the diplomats were able to see:

“Heavily armed special forces accompanied the busloads of visitors as they traveled around the deserted town, where the normally bustling tea houses and kebab shops were empty apart from the police and soldiers patrolling them”.

Condoleezza Rice has called on Uzbekistan to open its society. She is quoted as saying:

” Now, as to the latest events that have just taken place, I do think that we — and we would hope that the government of Uzbekistan — would be very open in understanding what has happened there…Nobody is asking any government to deal with terrorists..That’s not the issue. The issue, though, is that it is a society that needs openness, it needs reform.”

Now maybe I am being slow, but I don’t understand this. Where is the openness in Rice’s own statement?

Immigration: Evidence and Opinion

Following-up on my extensive post last week, some more evidence of the ongoing ‘reappraisal’ of the positive growth consequences of immigration that is taking place among economists: Immigration, Jobs and Wages Theory, Evidence and Opinion by Christian Dustmann and Albrecht Glitz.
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China’s Currency and Trade

Currency traders around the globe lazily staring into their screens must have found themselves transfixed last Friday when the flatline indicating the value of the Chinese yuan (or renminbi if you prefer) suddenly jumped to life. And so it was that during a brief 20 minute interval the yuan surged to a level of 8.270 to the dollar from the hypnotic and seemingly eternal value of 8.276. Now 6 thousandths of a dollar isn’t really a very big deal, but it is the sheer fact that it happened that is causing all the fuss.
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Scary Stuff

In a post which appeared earlier this week Tobias asks us whether, given some of the possible consequences of a French “non”, it might not be reasonable to ‘scare’ voters a little by spelling out some of the potential fallout which might follow a French rejection of the Constitution Treaty.

Perhaps the phrasing is unfortunate, but undoubtedly voters in Eurozone countries need to think long and hard about one especially sensitive area of impact: the future of the euro itself.
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Report from European Parliament

I promised to report back here on the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee meeting today on Croatia. It took place immediately after the EU Foreign Ministers had announced that because of Croatia’s failure to deliver fugitive general Ante Gotovina to the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, negotiations on Croatia’s EU membership will not begin tomorrow.

To my surprise, the main speaker from the Croatian side was not their Chief Negotiator, Vladimir Drobnjak, but the Prime Minister himself, Ivo Sanader. He made an extremely good impression on MEPs. I personally was much less impressed; he told three blatant untruths in his opening remarks, which disinclines me to take particularly seriously any of his statements about how hard his government is really looking for the fugitive general.
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Crunch for Croatia

Hi folks, I am your guest blogger for the next two weeks. I hope you’ll allow me to be a little coy about my identity; but I do work in Brussels, in the general field of international politics.

I usually forget to check the European Parliament’s calendar of next week’s events on Friday afternoon, though really I should do it as a matter of routine, to plan ahead for the coming week. (And really they should have a direct link from the front page of their website, rather than three clicks away; but there’s not much point in wasting blogspace on stating the obvious about the crap design of the EU institutions’ websites.)

Along with the usual tedium of schedules for a conference in Cairo that nobody I know will go to, and such marvels as the European Parliament’s desperate attempt to make itself relevant to the fight against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, there is one potentially very interesting meeting on the agenda.
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