Today is the 10th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre. AP quotes the commander of EU peacekeepers in Bosnia saying “the net is closing in” on the two men responsible for the worst massacre in Europe since World War II.
Nice, except that’s followed up by the dumbest quote I’ve seen this morning (it’s early yet): “It’s a bit like getting Osama bin Laden,” he said.
No, it’s not.
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This is not an analytical “perspectives” type post. Just a number of bitty threads that seem in one way or another worth noting (small pieces loosely joined). They could basically be grouped together under the following headings: photos, suicides, explosives and origins.
Maybe I should also point out the obvious: that living in Spain while coming from the UK gives me a rather unusual perspective on what is happening. I lived the days surrounding the Madrid bombings intensely, now I am doing the same with London (where I had my home for many years). In some ways I can’t help but see this in terms of similarities and differences.
The big difference is of course in the government reaction, and the way that this is transmitted to a wider public. The British official reaction is one of ‘containment’ in every sense of the word. I think this is a good approach, since I think that excessive shock and panic only serves the purposes of the terrorists. The overall sensation was that London was as prepared for this as it could have been, and that many of those working in the crisis management and emergency services areas were following through on already well rehearsed roles.
Things in Spain couldn’t have been more different.
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Sorry if I’m belabouring a rather obscure and generally ‘non-sexy’ issue: government debt in the eurozone. If I am doing this it is because I think something important is happening. I missed this point during the week.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday lowered to negative its credit rating outlooks for Italy and Portugal ? both among the three weakest countries in the eurozone ? amid concerns about their deteriorating public finances.
The negative outlooks could herald future credit rating downgrades, adding to concerns about economic divergence within the eurozone.
That’s the second time in a week (See the S&P post) that a ratings agency has done this to eurozone government debt. There are three economies in the ‘particularly at risk category: Italy, Greece and Portugal. They are ‘at risk’ not simply because they have substantial debt and/or deficits, but becuase they have this *and* important structural economic problems about the kinds of economic activities they engage in, they have a lack of international competitiveness that a drop in euro value of the order of magnitude we are seeing won’t resolve, that they are going to be forced to reduce their deficits during an ongoing economic ‘growth slowdown’, and that given their ageing populations their mid-term fiscal outlook is between poor and not-sustainable. Maybe we aren’t noticing much evidence of it yet, but the landscape beneath our feet is changing, even while we talk.
Incidentally, Italy has found another big one-off:
Italy’s government will raise as much as 4.1 billion euros ($4.9 billion) selling up to 10 percent of Enel SpA, Europe’s fourth-biggest utility, in the world’s largest share sale so far this year, the Finance Ministry said.
Italy will sell Enel shares at 7.18 euros each to institutions, Finance Ministry Director General Vittorio Grilli said at a press conference in Rome today. That’s 0.7 percent below Enel’s closing share price yesterday. Shares will be sold to individual investors at 7.07 euros each.
The thing is, you can try selling-off the furniture when you have problems paying the mortgage, but you can’t keep doing it forever.
A few weeks back, I blogged a little about the upcoming elections in Albania. Here’s a bit more.
The elections are expected to be close, because the ruling Socialist Party is split. The larger faction supports the current Prime Minister, Fatos Nano. But a breakaway group, under an ex-weightlifter named Ilir Meta, has organized itself into the Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI). The SMI is running a strong third in the polls and might well hold the balance of power between the two larger parties.
Meta used to be Prime Minister himself. To make a long and really complicated story short, Nano engineered his downfall back in 2001; both men were Socialists, but Nano wanted to be Prime Minister himself. Meta didn’t take it well.
The two major candidates — Nano and Democrat Sali Berisha — held a televised debate, Albania’s first ever, next week. (Meta was excluded, much to his irritation.) Although Berisha and Nano loathe each other, the debate went off without a hitch.
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The papers this morning seem to be all full of ‘gloomy’ articles whose principal theme is that Europe has finally been plunged into a grave crisis by this weeks summit.
“People will tell you next that Europe is not in a crisis,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who holds the EU presidency, said after a two-day summit ended in acrimony. “It is in a deep crisis.”
As someone who is ‘crisis prone’ I would have imagined I would share that feeling. Somehow I don’t.
Some reasons why.
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This week Hungary has a new President. The election of Laszlo Solyom as Hungary’s new President was a major setback for the governing Socialist Party (MSZP), at the same time as it was widely lauded as a victory by the right wing opposition Fidesz party. The outcome was largely the result of the behaviour of the MSZP?s junior coalition partner, the liberal leaning Free Democrats, who abstained. Katalin Szili, the MSZP choice, was regarded by Free Democrats as being far too involved with the MSZP. Only 3 votes separated the two candidates, and this reflects the current balance within the Hungarian parliament between Fidesz and MSZP ? a handful of independents and the Free Democrats in fact have the deciding votes.
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The European Commission is asking the Maltese government to explain its policy of banning journalists from immigrants? detention centres in response to a petition signed by 100 journalists and editors last February.
European Commissioner for Justice, Freedom and Security Franco Frattini told the European Parliament that the Commission was demanding information from the Maltese government about the total media ban imposed by Home Affairs Minister Tonio Borg.Replying to parliamentary questions made by Labour MEP Joseph Muscat and H?l?ne Flautre (Greens), Frattini said he was aware of the journalists? petition and of Borg?s media ban and that he was seeking information from the government. The Commission is also aware of the conditions in immigrants? detention centres which have been the subject of much criticism from international human rights agencies and organisations.
If the Netherlands vote ‘no’ tomorrow (and the opinion polls don’t seem to leave much room for doubt), then according to the FT Jack Straw will tell the House of Commons next Monday that the UK government is immediately suspending parliamentary passage of the European treaty bill. This means the ratification process will be dead, not just in theory (which I think it is now) but in practice. This announcement leaves me with a strange feeling. These days I don’t feel especially British, I am not a great admirer of Tony Blair and Jack Straw, but somehow they seem to have drawn the obvious conclusions, conclusions which clearly are not obvious to many other EU politicians. I can’t help thinking that if we could get to the bottom of why this is, we would understand a bit better why there is such a communication problem between the UK and other parts of the EU.
Britain is to suspend plans to put the European Union constitution to the vote if the Netherlands follows France and rejects the treaty in a referendum on Wednesday.
As the shockwaves of the French vote were resounding on Monday, it emerged that Tony Blair and Jack Straw, foreign secretary, have decided immediately to freeze plans for a UK referendum if, as expected, the Dutch vote No.
The government hopes other EU states would at once declare that rejection in France and the Netherlands meant ratification in all countries must be suspended. Even without consensus the prime minister and foreign secretary believe it would be politically impossible for the UK to carry on with its own ratification.
Incidentally, Jaques Chirac is to make a formal statement about the future French government and his interpretation of the vote on French TV tonight.
What, you may ask, has Italian government debt got to do with the French ‘no’ vote: everything would be my answer. (If you want to know more about this, thumb down my euro posts). The lack of a convincing advance towards political union makes Italian government debt riskier, so they have to pay more interest. This is, at present just a small breach, but it is one which is widening, and I fear this is the point at which the euro dyke will eventually breach:
“The euro hit a fresh 7-month low against the dollar and Italian government bonds came under strain on Monday after French voters gave a decisive thumbs-down to the proposed European Union constitution…………….The strains the French vote could have on the euro zone were reflected in government bonds. The spread on Italian BTP bonds over German debt touched 23 basis points, the highest level since November 2002, as so-called peripheral euro zone bonds suffered.”
The problem is that the markets have now ‘wised up’ to the problem, and will now be tracking Italian government debt as an issue in itself.
A couple of weeks ago, Versac from the French blog Publius sent me a bunch of questions concerning my views on the EU and the Constitution. They’re interviewing a number of non-French bloggers in this way. I thought I’d publish my answers here. A sample:
The main negative thing is that it’s giving the EU more power, competences, and I think that’s inappropriate before the democratic deficit is addressed. Also, it may lead to more judicial activism, which is bad.
Voting no is a bit of a gamble, since you can’t be sure it will push the governments in the desired direction, and not for example rule out Turkish membership to get it passed, or end up drafting an even worse constitution. But the happy scenarios seem likelier than the bad ones. We need to bloody the politician’s noses. Above all the present situation is unacceptable, and no real reform seems imminent. We need to seize the rare chance to set the EU on a new course, towards democracy and accountability. By rejecting the constitution, all bets are off.
Full interview under the fold.
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