Fooled you, it’s not about the euro :). Italy is about to have a referendum (next Sunday in fact), the topic: artificial insemination and embryo research. Benedict XVI has just spoken out against. In fact this has started me looking into the referendum situation in Italy. It seems they have quite a lot. Constitutionally they need 500,000 signatures, or 5 regional councils to back the call. Maroni is about to start collecting signatures.
Turkey vs EU
In both the French and Dutch No camps some voices were raised against Turkey entering the EU. Via Dutch weblog Sargasso I found a very interesting entry at Turkish weblog Turkish Torque. One excerpt:
It seems like AKP, like many Turks, has been discouraged by the French and Dutch referenda. This will only strengthen the hand of all the parties that have accused AKP with “selling out” national interests to the EU membership dream. (…) Letting go of the EU project would be a radical shift in foreign policy with serious repercussions on many foreign and domestic issues ranging from Cyprus to the re-trial of Ocalan.
It seems that the consequences of the demise of the Constitutional Treaty may reach further than ‘just’ an institutional crisis within the EU itself. Sadly, I do not have the time, nor the knowledge, to go into this but I believe it would be worthwile to follow this one a bit more closely.
Britain’s Referendum Postponed ‘Indefinitely’
Well, now it’s official:
Britain, which takes over the presidency of the European Union next month, has postponed indefinitely a troubled referendum on the bloc’s constitution following its rejection in France and the Netherlands, Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office said Monday. Blair’s official spokesman said the failure of the French and Dutch referendums on the charter had to be discussed at the European Council summit later this month. The referendum faced likely defeat in Britain.
Maroni Hits Back
Roberto Maroni is back in the Italian press again today, and with another interview. This interview is in ilResto del Carlino. (Interestingly enough they are running an online poll, and the result was running at 51.7% euro to 48.3% lira). Unfortunately the interview is in Italian. I have translated a few extracts under the fold. The big issue that he draws attention to (and I was flagging this in an earlier post) is the apparent desire of Berlusconi not to commit himself if he can help it.
Continue reading
German Factory Orders Are Down
Das Ordervolumen in der Industrie hat sich von M?rz auf April vorl?ufigen Angaben zufolge[2] preis- und saisonbereinigt[3] um 2,9% verringert, nachdem es im Monat zuvor deutlich angestiegen war (+2,1%). Der Nachfrager?ckgang im April war vor allem auf die Abnahme der Auftragseing?nge aus dem Ausland zur?ckzuf?hren (-5,2%). Die Bestellt?tigkeit im Inland verringerte sich demgegen?ber weniger deutlich (-0,6%).
German Economy and Labour Ministry
Doesn’t this just serve me right, and illustrate Murphy’s law. The first bit of news after I decide to ditch Bloomberg is only available in German! Still, and now cribbing shamfacedly from Bloomberg, I think it is saying:
Factory orders in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, dropped in April for a third month in four……… Orders fell 2.9 percent from March, when they gained 2.1 percent.
Euro Retails Sales Rise
Retail sales rose, if only marginally, in May according to NTC Research:
at 50.2, the PMI signalled only a marginal rise in sales as, overall, underlying market demand remained sluggish and retailers were forced to rely on promotional activity to improve their sales, which again impacted negatively on profits. Subdued demand was also highlighted by a further drop in purchasing activity and the sustained contraction of workforces in the sector.
So there is good and bad news packed away inside this number. Also interesting is the spread: The German reading of 53.4 was relatively good, the French one of 50.9 more or less neutral, and the Italian one of 44.4 absolutely appauling. For this, and all the other reasons I’ve been mentioning, we will need to keep a careful eye on Italy in the coming days.
On a methodological point, I’ve decided, following prodding from khr amongst others, to try and make a consciouss effort *not* to take material from Bloomberg, but to use Bloomberg as a kind of weather forecaster, so I know when its raining etc, and try to find a ‘clean’ original source – like NTC – (if such a thing exists, for eg the point Dave VH makes about the services number cited by NTC makes me want to doubt even them, and we certainly all know you can’t count on data from an Italian economics ministry – mind you they are better than the Greek ministry who consistently fail to provide up to date info even to the Commission: OK gripe over 🙂 ). Incidentally there are an interesting collection of links on Bonds info attached to Brad Setser’s post last Friday. Those interested in this abstruse theme could do a lot worse than follow the debate over there.
Silence Is Golden
Well this clears up one niggling little doubt about last weeks ECB meeting. Remember my post – when no means maybe – about how Trichet saying ?I am not telling you anything that could be interpreted as preparing a rate cut,? was actually double talk, and what he meant was I am not telling you anything, but I am winking.
Well now that other ECB stalwart, Otmar Issing, has come to our rescue and explains: “Communication is not only about being explicit. It is also about not answering questions”.
So as Reuters Chief ECB correspondent puts it: “He did it through his silence”.
Sometimes I think it may be a good thing if some of our other institutional representatives (Jean Claude Junker?) could learn from his example.
Bottom Line: this has been done this way because, as I suggested it was politically and institutionally impossible to announce a change of policy at last Thursday’s meeting, a rate change can now be expected anytime after the next meeting.
Things To Help You Sleep At Night
I don’t know quite why, but somehow I suddenly feel a lot better reading this:
Scientists trying to develop vaccines against Africa’s deadly Marburg and Ebola viruses are reporting an important milestone, a new type of vaccine that prevents the diseases in monkeys. Successfully immunizing monkeys is an essential step toward the goal of producing vaccines for people.
Two new vaccines, one for Marburg and one for Ebola, were 100 percent effective in a study of 12 macaques being published today in the journal Nature Medicine. Monkeys given just one shot of vaccine and later injected with a high dose of virus did not even get sick. Normally, all the animals would be expected to die.
Apples And Pears
Why does this kind of news always seem to come from Denmark?
Curvy women are more likely to live longer than their slimmer counterparts, researchers have found. Institute of Preventative Medicine in Copenhagen researchers found those with wider hips also appeared to be protected against heart conditions. Women with a hip measurement smaller than 40 inches, or a size 14 would not have this protection, they said. The researchers say hip fat contains a beneficial natural anti-inflammatory…..
“It has been widely reported that if you are apple-shaped, your risk of developing cardiovascular disease is likely to be greater than if you are pear-shaped. “This study provides additional evidence of the association between hip circumference and cardiovascular protection among women.
Splicing The Fruit Fly
This is definitely ‘interesting’:
Altering a single gene in a fruit fly can turn its sexual orientation around, causing male flies to lose interest in females, and females to display male mating rituals to other females, according to a study published in the journal Cell on Friday.