Sumer, Kurdistan and Turkish Membership of the EU.

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The FT is carrying a story today which draws our attention (indirectly) to the fact that events in Iraq may well have more impact on Turkey’s future accession possibilities than the French referendum vote. According to the FT:

“Iraqi Kurdistan’s newly elected regional parliament convened for the first time on Saturday in the northern city of Irbil, paving the way for the unification of a Kurdish self-rule area divided between two rival parties.”

Last week Juan Cole on Informed Comment reported on :

an ongoing dispute between the Kurds, who want an Iraqi federalism that gives “states’ rights” only to Kurdistan but not to other provinces, and the Shiites, who want a federalism that would apply geographically throughout the country. The Shiites want to create a southern super-province to serve as a counter weight to Kurdistan. Shiite leaders are planning a congress that can establish the instrumentalities for creating the region of “Sumer” in the south, which will consist of 3 consolidated provinces.

Given the instability in Iraq, it is hard to say where this will lead, but the Kurdish talk of realising their national aspirations is bound to make the government that sits just across their Northern frontier pretty nervous, especially since it is bound to see the creation of one unified Kurdish region in Iraq as a preliminary to subsequent incorporations. Definitely one to watch.

The Week Ahead

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This week promises to be another ‘busy’ one. Today the EU finance ministers (Ecofin) are meeting in Luxembourg, to discuss the condition of the common currency after last week’s ‘battering’ in the press and in the financial markets. Also headed for Luxembourg is EU Economics Commissioner Joaquim Almunia. Amongst other items he will have one in particulr which is high on his agenda: a meeting with Italian Ecomy Minister Domenico Siniscalco. Almunia is due to present a report on Italy’s deficit situation to the Commission tomorrow, and will almost certainly recommend the initiation of an excess deficit procedure under the revised terms of the stability and growth pact.
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Swiss Joining Schengenland

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In a referendum, 55 percent of Swiss voters who went to the polls cast their ballots in favor of joining the Schengen agreement. Implementation will last through 2007 (though it will be complete for the 2008 European football championships, co-hosted with Austria), but the path to passport-free travel is clear. Joining the area also gives Swiss authorities to a collective database on wanted and missing persons.

Norway and Iceland are the other two non-EU members of the Schengen agreement. The rest of the old EU-15 are members, except for Ireland and the United Kingdom.

UPDATE: As Edward writes, and I should have mentioned, “It is also interesting to note that the supposedly ‘socially conservative’ Switzerland has become the first European state to give solid legal rights to gay partnerships in a popular vote. This should also put some of the recent EU referendum in some perspective.”

In the absence of plan ‘b’

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Many readers have been asking about the mechanics of any hypothetical ‘euro’ break-up, or indeed of what might happen if one country were to leave. Up to now, we have been told this is impossible, but clearly it is possible, and, however remote the possibility may seem (the order of 5% risk is the topical response) institutions in the financial sector cannot be without a plan ‘b’. In this context, this article, I found whilst idly noodling around the net, could be seen as informative. It is written by a software engineer for a magazine called Software Reality. The article’s title: reverse-engineering the euro.
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That Other Issue

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The euro. Hamish McRae talks a lot of sense in the Independent today:

“So was the euro a terrible mistake? Will Germany, Italy and France go back to the mark, the lira and the franc? A string of stories have hit the streets hinting that this may be the outcome following the failure of France and the Netherlands to ratify the European constitution.

It is easy to see why there should be such speculation, but the eurozone is not going to collapse in the near future. I may be wrong, but my instinct is that while it will eventually unravel, such an event is almost certainly at least a decade away. That said, the debate matters because what was once a no-go subject is now being talked about, and this changes things.”

Let Battle Be Joined

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Well, things are shaping up nicely for a ‘healthy debate of the underlying issues’ on 16/17 June. Chirac and Schr?der have pronounced: the ratification process must continue, Jean-Claude Juncker is warning that failure to reach a budget deal at the summit would “turn the big European difficulties into a big European crisis“, and Peter Mandelson forsees a historic opportunity for Tony Blair. Mandelson is quoted as saying:

“Tony Blair could carry on for another three years now that he has been given a “fresh calling” to resolve Europe’s crisis, his old ally Peter Mandelson claimed last night.

Mr Mandelson said the French and Dutch rejection of the European Union constitution handed Mr Blair another chance to secure his legacy as Prime Minister“.

What does all this mean? Well, according to France’s Le Figaro:

“Si Londres gagne, c’est la victoire de l’Europe lib?rale, ? l’anglo-saxonne, aussi ?largie que possible, un grand march? contr?l? au strict minimum par Bruxelles. Si Berlin l’emporte, c’est la victoire de l’Europe politique, libre-?changiste, mais surtout f?d?rale, avec une d?fense, une diplomatie, et une monnaie commune. Dans l’Europe b?tarde du trait? de Nice, tous les Etats membres n’ont pas encore choisi leur camp. La crise va les obliger ? tomber les masques.”

“”If London wins [the ratification dispute] it is a victory for liberal, Anglo-Saxon Europe, enlarged as much as possible, a giant market, with regulation from Brussels kept to a strict minimum. If It is Berlin that carries the day, it’s victory for the Political vision of Europe, free-trade, but especially federal, with a common defence, diplomacy, and a common money. In the ‘bastard’ Europe born of Nice treaty, all members states have not yet chosen their camp. The crisis will force everyone to take off their masks.”

Of course there is a third party here: the Commission. What Barroso will undoubtedly be working for is a pragmatic, workable compromise.

“Mr Barroso urged the French leader and his colleagues to “turn a crisis into an opportunity” and argued: “It is vital that we use the present moment to forge a new consensus.”

He warned Europe not to indulge in a “blame game” or an “ideological rift” between supporters of free markets and those who believe in government intervention. What was needed, Mr Barroso said, was “an intelligent synthesis between the market and the state, which can help Europe win and not lose in the face of globalisation”.”

People Get Ready

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Laura Rozen thinks that the broadcast of a graphic video from the massacre at Srebrenica may mark a tipping point in Serbian public opinion and pave the way for the arrest of Ratko Mladic and his extradition to The Hague.

She quotes an international justice listserv:

B92’s Danijel Bukomirovic, speaking in Dutch on NOS Journaal at 20:00 CET, suggested between the lines the Serbian government had had a hand in the surfacing of the ‘executions tape.’ The dire economic needs of the country make EU accession talks the only option for a better future, but oppositon amongst a majority of the poulation against the ICTY’s demands for the extradition of indicted war criminals stands in the way. A mood swing amongst a public in denial of the Srebrenica massacres would pave the way towards the extradition of Ratko Mladic…

This is part of what’s at stake with EU enlargement, and indirectly with the constitutional treaty.
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Long Sentence Arrived

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Following up on the previous post, Khordokovsky was indeed found guilty and sentenced to nine years. Allowing for time already served and possible sentence reduction for good behavior, he could be out in 2009. Well after Russia’s 2008 presidential election which is, presumably, part of the plan.

Khodorkovsky is appealing the verdict, and Yukos is suing various parties for $11.5 billion, alleging expropriation. I wouldn’t put much stock in the success of either venture.

Heeding Henry.

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Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, may be coming out of the dog house – if only conceptually.

After even the left leaning German daily taz recently began publishing political obituaries for the man who more than anyone represents the political maturing (or not) of the generation of ’68 (following the affair about problematic political guidelines leading to criminal exploitation of German visa policies in Eastern Europe and in light of the looming federal election that will likely lead to a government without a Green party participation), Mr Fischer may have decided that it might be worthwhile to spend his remaining time in office not just by campaigning for a permanent German seat in the UN security council but by heeding Henry Farrell’s advice about the opportunities of a dieing European constitution and going back to his own foreign policy ‘roots’: In May 2000, he used a speech at Berlin’s Humboldt University to sketch out his ideas for ever closer union, “From Confederacy to Federation” (pdf available).
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